Western Michigan at Marshall Week 5 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Marshall Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium Huntington, WV · Turf · 38,019 cap
Western Michigan✈ 314 miSame TZ
20 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
21
Marshall
34
P&R Line Marshall -13
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -3.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Marshall -3.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Western Michigan Coming off BYE
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
Sat 9/7Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.5L0–5654.5L0–56ON
Sat 9/14Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.5W59–3154.5W59–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Western Michigan at Marshall+3.5L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/5Western Michigan at Ball State-10.0W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/12Western Michigan vs Akron-9.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 10/19Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.0W48–4149.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/26Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.0W52–2161.0W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.5L28–4251.5L28–42ON
Tue 11/12Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.5L13–3157.5L13–31UN
Tue 11/19Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.0L14–1656.0L14–16UN
Sat 11/30Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W26–1856.5W26–18UY
Sat 12/14Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.0L23–3053.5L23–30UN
Marshall 2024 Schedule
Marshall's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Marshall vs Stony Brook-32.5W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Marshall at Virginia Tech+20.5L14–3152.5L14–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Marshall at Ohio State+40.0L14–4957.0L14–49OY
Sat 9/28Marshall vs Western Michigan-3.5W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/5Marshall vs App State-3.0W52–3756.5W52–37OY
Sat 10/12Marshall at Georgia Southern+1.0L23–2458.5L23–24UY
Thu 10/17Marshall vs Georgia State-9.5W35–2051.5W35–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Marshall vs UL Monroe-10.5W28–2348.0W28–23ON
Sat 11/9Marshall at Southern Miss-13.5W37–353.5W37–3UY
Sat 11/16Marshall vs Coastal Carolina-7.5W31–1957.0W31–19UY
Sat 11/23Marshall at Old Dominion+3.0W42–3551.0W42–35OY
Sat 11/30Marshall at James Madison+2.5W35–3352.5W35–33OY
Sat 12/7Marshall at Louisiana+5.0W31–358.0W31–3UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan #43
+0.369
Marshall #60
+0.500
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #40
+0.445
Marshall #82
+0.666
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #44
0.176
Marshall #19
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan #49
+7.973
Marshall #66
+8.305
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #33
+0.852
Marshall #66
+0.920
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan #22
68.7
Marshall #26
68.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.3
Marshall
-3.1
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Marshall
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
19.9
Marshall
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #116
0.00
Marshall #120
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #121
2.50
Marshall #94
2.00
Western Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
37.9
Marshall #1
33.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #82
48.0
Marshall #22
46.1
Western Michigan +4.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Seth Doege Yr 1 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself