Akron at Western Michigan Week 7 College Football Matchup Akron at Western Michigan Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Waldo Stadium Kalamazoo, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Akron✈ 227 miSame TZ
Away
24 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Akron
22
WMU -9.5
Western Michigan
32
P&R Line Western Michigan -10.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Michigan -9.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Western Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -9.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Akron 2024 Schedule
Akron's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Akron at Ohio State+50.5L6–5258.5L6–52UY
Sat 9/7Akron at Rutgers+24.5L17–4941.5L17–49ON
Sat 9/14Akron vs Colgate-13.5W31–2048.5W31–20ON
Sat 9/21Akron at South Carolina+25.0L7–5042.0L7–50ON
Sat 9/28Akron at Ohio+8.5L10–3046.0L10–30UN
Sat 10/5Akron vs Bowling Green+17.0L20–2748.5L20–27UY
Sat 10/12Akron at Western Michigan+9.5L24–3448.5L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Akron vs Eastern Michigan+2.5W25–2150.5W25–21UY
Sat 11/2Akron vs Buffalo-1.0L30–4149.0L30–41ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/13Akron at Northern Illinois+14.0L16–2943.5L16–29OY
Tue 11/19Akron at Kent State-10.5W38–1749.0W38–17OY
Tue 11/26Akron vs Toledo+9.5W21–1450.5W21–14UY
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Western Michigan at Wisconsin+24.0L14–2857.0L14–28UY
Sat 9/7Western Michigan at Ohio State+37.5L0–5654.5L0–56ON
Sat 9/14Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman-33.5W59–3154.5W59–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Western Michigan at Marshall+3.5L20–2753.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/5Western Michigan at Ball State-10.0W45–4257.5W45–42ON
Sat 10/12Western Michigan vs Akron-9.5W34–2448.5W34–24OY
Sat 10/19Western Michigan at Buffalo-1.0W48–4149.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/26Western Michigan vs Kent State-19.0W52–2161.0W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/6Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois+2.5L28–4251.5L28–42ON
Tue 11/12Western Michigan at Bowling Green+9.5L13–3157.5L13–31UN
Tue 11/19Western Michigan at Central Michigan-6.0L14–1656.0L14–16UN
Sat 11/30Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W26–1856.5W26–18UY
Sat 12/14Western Michigan vs South Alabama+6.0L23–3053.5L23–30UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Western Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Akron #122
+0.361
Western Michigan #43
+0.442
Western Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Akron #118
+0.559
Western Michigan #40
+0.689
Western Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Akron #96
0.143
Western Michigan #44
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Akron #120
+7.638
Western Michigan #49
+8.298
Western Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Akron #114
+0.880
Western Michigan #33
+0.899
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Akron #124
73.6
Western Michigan #22
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Akron
-11.1
Western Michigan
-5.6
Offense Rating
Akron
9.8
Western Michigan
14.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Akron
20.9
Western Michigan
20.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Akron #123
0.40
Western Michigan #116
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Akron #111
2.00
Western Michigan #121
1.50
Western Michigan +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Akron #1
22.7
Western Michigan #1
38.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Akron #106
59.4
Western Michigan #82
44.5
Western Michigan +15.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
3 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Michigan
43.5 — 34.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Michigan with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Akron
Joe Moorhead #1
4–20 (17%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Taylor Housewright Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Tibesar Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Walt Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Scott Power Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself