Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
·
Turf
·
30,200 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 99 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Western Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Michigan -6.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Eastern Michigan 2024 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts | +2.5W28–14 | 49.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Eastern Michigan at Washington | +25.0L9–30 | 48.5 | L9–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Eastern Michigan vs Jacksonville State | +2.5W37–34 | 53.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA) | -25.5W36–0 | 45.5 | W36–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Eastern Michigan at Kent State | -14.0W52–33 | 46.0 | W52–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH) | +3.0L14–38 | 45.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan | -3.5W38–34 | 52.5 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Eastern Michigan at Akron | -2.5L21–25 | 50.5 | L21–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Eastern Michigan vs Toledo | +10.0L28–29 | 54.5 | L28–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/13 | Eastern Michigan at Ohio | +10.5L10–35 | 51.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Wed 11/20 | Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo | -1.0L20–37 | 53.5 | L20–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan | +6.5L18–26 | 56.5 | L18–26 | U | N |
Western Michigan 2024 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Western Michigan at Wisconsin | +24.0L14–28 | 57.0 | L14–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Michigan at Ohio State | +37.5L0–56 | 54.5 | L0–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Michigan vs Bethune-Cookman | -33.5W59–31 | 54.5 | W59–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Western Michigan at Marshall | +3.5L20–27 | 53.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Western Michigan at Ball State | -10.0W45–42 | 57.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Western Michigan vs Akron | -9.5W34–24 | 48.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Western Michigan at Buffalo | -1.0W48–41 | 49.5 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Western Michigan vs Kent State | -19.0W52–21 | 61.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois | +2.5L28–42 | 51.5 | L28–42 | O | N |
| Tue 11/12 | Western Michigan at Bowling Green | +9.5L13–31 | 57.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | -6.0L14–16 | 56.0 | L14–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5W26–18 | 56.5 | W26–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/14 | Western Michigan vs South Alabama | +6.0L23–30 | 53.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +3.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
52–68 (43%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Mike Piatkowski
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ben Needham
Yr 1
#1
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Power
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓