South Alabama at Southern Miss Week 13 College Football Matchup South Alabama at Southern Miss Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium Hattiesburg, MS · Turf · 36,000 cap
South Alabama✈ 88 miSame TZ
35 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Alabama
39
Southern Miss
15
P&R Line South Alabama -24.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas South Alabama -24 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -24
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 South Alabama 2nd straight Road Game
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Alabama vs North Texas-6.0L38–5261.5L38–52ON
Sat 9/7South Alabama at Ohio-1.5L20–2755.5L20–27UN
Thu 9/12South Alabama vs Northwestern State-36.5W87–1060.5W87–10OY
Thu 9/19South Alabama at App State+8.0W48–1462.5W48–14UY
Sat 9/28South Alabama at LSU+21.0L10–4264.5L10–42UN
Sat 10/5South Alabama at Arkansas State-2.5L16–1862.5L16–18UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15South Alabama vs Troy-10.0W25–953.0W25–9UY
Sat 10/26South Alabama vs UL Monroe-7.0W46–1745.0W46–17OY
Sat 11/2South Alabama vs Georgia Southern-5.5L30–3460.0L30–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16South Alabama at Louisiana+6.5W24–2260.0W24–22UY
Sat 11/23South Alabama at Southern Miss-24.0W35–1454.0W35–14UN
Fri 11/29South Alabama vs Texas State+2.5L38–4560.5L38–45ON
Sat 12/14South Alabama vs Western Michigan-6.0W30–2353.5W30–23UY
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/7Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.5W35–1053.5W35–10UY
Sat 9/14Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.0L24–4958.5L24–49ON
Sat 9/21Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.0L7–4459.5L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.5L13–2357.5L13–23UY
Sat 10/12Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.5L21–3841.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/19Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.0L28–4457.0L28–44ON
Sat 10/26Southern Miss at James Madison+24.0L15–3254.0L15–32UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.5L3–3753.5L3–37UN
Sat 11/16Southern Miss at Texas State+27.5L3–5856.5L3–58ON
Sat 11/23Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.0L14–3554.0L14–35UY
Sat 11/30Southern Miss at Troy+17.5L20–5248.5L20–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
South Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Alabama #5
+0.641
Southern Miss #132
+0.155
South Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Alabama #27
+0.706
Southern Miss #134
+0.190
South Alabama Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Alabama #70
0.159
Southern Miss #97
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Alabama Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Alabama #13
+8.835
Southern Miss #133
+6.417
South Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Alabama #9
+0.939
Southern Miss #130
+0.756
South Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Alabama #65
70.7
Southern Miss #123
73.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Alabama Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Alabama
-11.8
Southern Miss
-13.0
Offense Rating
South Alabama
8.6
Southern Miss
8.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Alabama
20.4
Southern Miss
21.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? South Alabama Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Alabama #28
1.89
Southern Miss #125
0.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Alabama #72
0.78
Southern Miss #117
2.44
South Alabama +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? South Alabama Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Alabama #1
49.0
Southern Miss #1
14.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Alabama #62
36.4
Southern Miss #137
72.8
South Alabama +34.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on South Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Rob Ezell Yr 1 #1
DC Will Windham Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Chip Long Yr 1 #1
DC Clay Bignell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself