Marshall at Southern Miss Week 11 College Football Matchup Marshall at Southern Miss Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium Hattiesburg, MS · Turf · 36,000 cap
Marshall✈ 627 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
37 3
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Marshall
39
MRSH -13.5
Southern Miss
14
P&R Line Marshall -25
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Marshall -13.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Marshall has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Marshall wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -13.5
O/U 53.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Southern Miss Coming off BYE
Marshall 2024 Schedule
Marshall's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Marshall vs Stony Brook-32.5W45–356.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Marshall at Virginia Tech+20.5L14–3152.5L14–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Marshall at Ohio State+40.0L14–4957.0L14–49OY
Sat 9/28Marshall vs Western Michigan-3.5W27–2053.5W27–20UY
Sat 10/5Marshall vs App State-3.0W52–3756.5W52–37OY
Sat 10/12Marshall at Georgia Southern+1.0L23–2458.5L23–24UY
Thu 10/17Marshall vs Georgia State-9.5W35–2051.5W35–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Marshall vs UL Monroe-10.5W28–2348.0W28–23ON
Sat 11/9Marshall at Southern Miss-13.5W37–353.5W37–3UY
Sat 11/16Marshall vs Coastal Carolina-7.5W31–1957.0W31–19UY
Sat 11/23Marshall at Old Dominion+3.0W42–3551.0W42–35OY
Sat 11/30Marshall at James Madison+2.5W35–3352.5W35–33OY
Sat 12/7Marshall at Louisiana+5.0W31–358.0W31–3UY
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/7Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.5W35–1053.5W35–10UY
Sat 9/14Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.0L24–4958.5L24–49ON
Sat 9/21Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.0L7–4459.5L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.5L13–2357.5L13–23UY
Sat 10/12Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.5L21–3841.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/19Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.0L28–4457.0L28–44ON
Sat 10/26Southern Miss at James Madison+24.0L15–3254.0L15–32UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.5L3–3753.5L3–37UN
Sat 11/16Southern Miss at Texas State+27.5L3–5856.5L3–58ON
Sat 11/23Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.0L14–3554.0L14–35UY
Sat 11/30Southern Miss at Troy+17.5L20–5248.5L20–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Marshall PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Marshall #60
+0.508
Southern Miss #132
+0.135
Marshall Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Marshall #82
+0.579
Southern Miss #134
+0.077
Marshall Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Marshall #19
0.190
Southern Miss #97
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Marshall Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Marshall #66
+8.103
Southern Miss #133
+6.622
Marshall Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Marshall #66
+0.870
Southern Miss #130
+0.747
Marshall Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Marshall #26
68.9
Southern Miss #123
73.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Marshall Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Marshall Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Marshall
-3.0
Southern Miss
-12.9
Offense Rating
Marshall
13.9
Southern Miss
8.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Marshall
16.9
Southern Miss
21.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Marshall Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Marshall #120
0.71
Southern Miss #125
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #94
1.29
Southern Miss #117
2.14
Marshall +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Marshall Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Marshall #1
50.1
Southern Miss #1
17.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Marshall #22
29.1
Southern Miss #137
68.5
Marshall +33.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Marshall with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
22–17 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Seth Doege Yr 1 #1
DC Jason Semore Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Chip Long Yr 1 #1
DC Clay Bignell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself