Southern Miss at Troy Week 14 College Football Matchup Southern Miss at Troy Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium Troy, AL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Southern Miss✈ 201 miSame TZ
20 52
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Southern Miss
16
Troy
35
P&R Line Troy -19
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Troy -17.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Troy has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Troy entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Troy wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Troy -17.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/7Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.5W35–1053.5W35–10UY
Sat 9/14Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.0L24–4958.5L24–49ON
Sat 9/21Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.0L7–4459.5L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.5L13–2357.5L13–23UY
Sat 10/12Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.5L21–3841.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/19Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.0L28–4457.0L28–44ON
Sat 10/26Southern Miss at James Madison+24.0L15–3254.0L15–32UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.5L3–3753.5L3–37UN
Sat 11/16Southern Miss at Texas State+27.5L3–5856.5L3–58ON
Sat 11/23Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.0L14–3554.0L14–35UY
Sat 11/30Southern Miss at Troy+17.5L20–5248.5L20–52ON
Troy 2024 Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Troy vs Nevada-7.5L26–2844.5L26–28ON
Sat 9/7Troy at Memphis+18.5L17–3857.5L17–38UN
Sat 9/14Troy at Iowa+23.5L21–3839.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Troy vs Florida A&M-21.5W34–1248.5W34–12UY
Sat 9/28Troy vs UL Monroe-6.0L9–1346.0L9–13UN
Thu 10/3Troy vs Texas State+14.5L17–3856.0L17–38UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Troy at South Alabama+10.0L9–2553.0L9–25UN
Sat 10/26Troy at Arkansas State+8.5L31–3450.0L31–34OY
Sat 11/2Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.0W38–2452.0W38–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Troy at Georgia Southern+7.0W28–2054.0W28–20UY
Sat 11/23Troy at Louisiana+7.5L30–5151.5L30–51ON
Sat 11/30Troy vs Southern Miss-17.5W52–2048.5W52–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Southern Miss #132
+0.182
Troy #50
+0.522
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #134
+0.204
Troy #25
+0.709
Troy Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #97
0.143
Troy #60
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #133
+6.528
Troy #22
+8.603
Troy Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #130
+0.780
Troy #49
+0.883
Troy Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #123
73.5
Troy #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Troy Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Southern Miss
-13.0
Troy
-12.2
Offense Rating
Southern Miss
8.0
Troy
9.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Southern Miss
21.0
Troy
21.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Troy Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Southern Miss #125
0.20
Troy #96
0.70
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #117
2.30
Troy #100
1.40
Troy +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Troy Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Southern Miss #1
15.3
Troy #1
29.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #137
71.9
Troy #96
48.8
Troy +14.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Troy
67.3 — 16.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Troy won by 32
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Troy with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Chip Long Yr 1 #1
DC Clay Bignell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Reagan Yr 1 #1
DC Nathan Burton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself