Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
South Florida✈ 470 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
South Florida wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Florida -13
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Florida
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Florida 2024 Schedule
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman | -22.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | South Florida at Alabama | +33.5L16–42 | 65.5 | L16–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | South Florida at Southern Miss | -13.0W49–24 | 58.5 | W49–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | South Florida vs Miami | +17.0L15–50 | 64.5 | L15–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | South Florida at Tulane | +4.0L10–45 | 60.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | South Florida vs Memphis | +10.0L3–21 | 61.0 | L3–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | South Florida vs UAB | -14.0W35–25 | 55.5 | W35–25 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/1 | South Florida at Florida Atlantic | -1.5W44–21 | 48.0 | W44–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | South Florida vs Navy | +4.5L7–28 | 59.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | South Florida at Charlotte | +1.5W59–24 | 53.5 | W59–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | South Florida vs Tulsa | -17.5W63–30 | 60.0 | W63–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | South Florida at Rice | -5.5L28–35 | 53.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Tue 12/24 | South Florida vs San José State | -1.5W41–39 | 66.5 | W41–39 | O | Y |
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Southern Miss at Kentucky | +25.5L0–31 | 50.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana | -17.5W35–10 | 53.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Southern Miss vs South Florida | +13.0L24–49 | 58.5 | L24–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Southern Miss at Jacksonville State | +6.0L7–44 | 59.5 | L7–44 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +17.5L13–23 | 57.5 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | +4.5L21–38 | 41.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | +7.0L28–44 | 57.0 | L28–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Southern Miss at James Madison | +24.0L15–32 | 54.0 | L15–32 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Southern Miss vs Marshall | +13.5L3–37 | 53.5 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Southern Miss at Texas State | +27.5L3–58 | 56.5 | L3–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +24.0L14–35 | 54.0 | L14–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Southern Miss at Troy | +17.5L20–52 | 48.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Florida +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Florida
1 — 3 sequences
GC Battle
South Florida
18.4 — 69.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Florida won by 25
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Alex Golesh #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Joel Gordon
Yr 2
#1
DC
Todd Orlando
Yr 2
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Chip Long
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clay Bignell
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓