Southern Miss at Kentucky Week 1 College Football Matchup Southern Miss at Kentucky Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 31 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Commonwealth Stadium Lexington, KY · Turf · 61,000 cap
Southern Miss✈ 537 mi+1 hr TZ
0 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Southern Miss
9
Kentucky
40
P&R Line Kentucky -30.5
P&R Total O/U 49
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kentucky -25.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -25.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kentucky · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/7Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.5W35–1053.5W35–10UY
Sat 9/14Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.0L24–4958.5L24–49ON
Sat 9/21Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.0L7–4459.5L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.5L13–2357.5L13–23UY
Sat 10/12Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.5L21–3841.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/19Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.0L28–4457.0L28–44ON
Sat 10/26Southern Miss at James Madison+24.0L15–3254.0L15–32UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.5L3–3753.5L3–37UN
Sat 11/16Southern Miss at Texas State+27.5L3–5856.5L3–58ON
Sat 11/23Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.0L14–3554.0L14–35UY
Sat 11/30Southern Miss at Troy+17.5L20–5248.5L20–52ON
Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.5W31–050.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/7Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.5L6–3141.5L6–31UN
Sat 9/14Kentucky vs Georgia+24.0L12–1345.0L12–13UY
Sat 9/21Kentucky vs Ohio-19.0W41–642.0W41–6OY
Sat 9/28Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.0W20–1751.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.5L13–2044.5L13–20UN
Sat 10/19Kentucky at Florida-2.5L20–4842.5L20–48ON
Sat 10/26Kentucky vs Auburn-2.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/2Kentucky at Tennessee+17.5L18–2845.5L18–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kentucky vs Murray State-41.5W48–654.5W48–6UY
Sat 11/23Kentucky at Texas+18.5L14–3147.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/30Kentucky vs Louisville+3.5L14–4148.5L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Southern Miss #132
+0.160
Kentucky #118
+0.389
Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #134
+0.142
Kentucky #117
+0.476
Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #97
0.143
Kentucky #56
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #133
+6.197
Kentucky #104
+7.664
Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #130
+0.806
Kentucky #89
+0.855
Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #123
73.5
Kentucky #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Southern Miss
-13.0
Kentucky
0.2
Offense Rating
Southern Miss
8.0
Kentucky
16.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Southern Miss
21.0
Kentucky
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Southern Miss Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Southern Miss #125
0.00
Kentucky #95
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #117
0.00
Kentucky #48
0.00
Southern Miss +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Southern Miss Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Southern Miss #1
0.0
Kentucky #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #137
0.0
Kentucky #93
0.0
Southern Miss +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kentucky
67.8 — 11.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Chip Long Yr 1 #1
DC Clay Bignell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
73–65 (53%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Bush Hamdan Yr 1 #1
DC Brad White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself