New Mexico at New Mexico State Week 5 College Football Matchup New Mexico at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 5
Sun, Sep 29 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
New Mexico✈ 192 miSame TZ
50 40
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico
31
NMSU +9.5
New Mexico State
29
P&R Line New Mexico -2.5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas New Mexico -9.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
New Mexico wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -9.5
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24New Mexico vs Montana State+10.5L31–3554.0L31–35OY
Sat 8/31New Mexico at Arizona+28.0L39–6160.0L39–61OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14New Mexico at Auburn+25.5L19–4558.5L19–45ON
Sat 9/21New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.0L21–3861.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.5W50–4054.0W50–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12New Mexico vs Air Force-7.0W52–3756.0W52–37OY
Sat 10/19New Mexico at Utah State-1.0W50–4578.5W50–45OY
Sat 10/26New Mexico at Colorado State+3.5L6–1762.0L6–17UN
Sat 11/2New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.5L45–4960.5L45–49ON
Fri 11/8New Mexico at San Diego State+1.5W21–1665.5W21–16UY
Sat 11/16New Mexico vs Washington State+10.5W38–3572.5W38–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.5L30–3861.5L30–38ON
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico #14
+0.568
New Mexico State #119
+0.421
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #77
+0.605
New Mexico State #128
+0.560
New Mexico Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico #114
0.135
New Mexico State #128
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #79
+7.533
New Mexico State #82
+8.436
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico #10
+0.901
New Mexico State #106
+0.897
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico #121
73.2
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico
1.2
New Mexico State
-14.8
Offense Rating
New Mexico
17.3
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico
16.1
New Mexico State
21.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico #118
0.33
New Mexico State #117
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #81
2.33
New Mexico State #123
2.33
New Mexico +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico #1
25.4
New Mexico State #1
23.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #98
56.6
New Mexico State #122
57.6
New Mexico +2.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself