UTEP at New Mexico State Week 14 College Football Matchup UTEP at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
Away
42 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTEP
25
New Mexico State
29
P&R Line New Mexico State -4
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas New Mexico State -3.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
New Mexico State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
New Mexico State -3.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 UTEP 2nd straight Road Game
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTEP PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTEP #121
+0.333
New Mexico State #119
+0.212
UTEP Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #108
+0.515
New Mexico State #128
+0.257
UTEP Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTEP #34
0.182
New Mexico State #128
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #132
+6.515
New Mexico State #82
+7.654
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTEP #124
+0.782
New Mexico State #106
+0.790
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTEP #113
72.9
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTEP Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTEP
-16.2
New Mexico State
-14.9
Offense Rating
UTEP
4.4
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTEP
20.6
New Mexico State
21.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTEP #130
0.10
New Mexico State #117
0.30
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #130
1.90
New Mexico State #123
2.10
New Mexico State +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTEP #1
21.9
New Mexico State #1
24.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #120
57.7
New Mexico State #122
58.4
New Mexico State +2.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UTEP
41.7 — 43.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UTEP won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself