Sun, Sep 15 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Bulldog Stadium
Fresno, CA
·
Turf
·
41,031 cap
New Mexico State✈ 803 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico State,
while Game Control favors Fresno State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
New Mexico State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -19.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Fresno State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State | -9.5W23–16 | 52.5 | W23–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | New Mexico State vs Liberty | +22.5L24–30 | 54.5 | L24–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | New Mexico State at Fresno State | +19.5L0–48 | 48.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | New Mexico State at Sam Houston | +15.5L11–31 | 44.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +9.5L40–50 | 54.0 | L40–50 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/9 | New Mexico State at Jacksonville State | +21.0L13–54 | 58.5 | L13–54 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech | +12.5W33–30 | 49.0 | W33–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | +7.0L13–34 | 43.5 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky | +18.0L28–41 | 53.5 | L28–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | New Mexico State at Texas A&M | +38.5L3–38 | 54.5 | L3–38 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee | +3.5W36–21 | 54.0 | W36–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | New Mexico State vs UTEP | -3.5L35–42 | 51.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
Fresno State 2024 Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Fresno State at Michigan | +21.0L10–30 | 48.0 | L10–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Fresno State vs Sacramento State | -18.5W46–30 | 55.5 | W46–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Fresno State vs New Mexico State | -19.5W48–0 | 48.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Fresno State at New Mexico | -12.0W38–21 | 61.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Fresno State at UNLV | +2.5L14–59 | 51.0 | L14–59 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Fresno State vs Washington State | +3.5L17–25 | 60.5 | L17–25 | U | N |
| Fri 10/18 | Fresno State at Nevada | -3.0W24–21 | 50.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Fresno State vs San José State | -6.5W33–10 | 55.0 | W33–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Fresno State vs Hawai'i | -12.0L20–21 | 45.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Fresno State at Air Force | -9.5L28–36 | 40.5 | L28–36 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Fresno State vs Colorado State | -3.5W28–22 | 43.5 | W28–22 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Fresno State at UCLA | +7.5L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/23 | Fresno State vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L20–28 | 41.0 | L20–28 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +11.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Fresno State
92.4 — 4.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 48
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Wright
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Morris
Yr 1
#1
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
45–22 (67%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Pat McCann
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓