UNLV at San José State Week 13 College Football Matchup UNLV at San José State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
UNLV✈ 380 miSame TZ
Away
27 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UNLV
34
San José State
23
P&R Line UNLV -11.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UNLV -7.5 · O/U 59.5
Matchup Prediction
UNLV has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
UNLV wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UNLV -7.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San José State 2nd straight Home Game
UNLV 2024 Schedule
UNLV's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UNLV at Houston+3.0W27–756.0W27–7UY
Sat 9/7UNLV vs Utah Tech-41.5W72–1455.5W72–14OY
Fri 9/13UNLV vs Kansas+7.0W23–2057.0W23–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UNLV vs Fresno State-2.5W59–1451.0W59–14OY
Fri 10/4UNLV vs Syracuse-5.5L41–4455.5L41–44ON
Fri 10/11UNLV at Utah State-19.0W50–3467.5W50–34ON
Sat 10/19UNLV at Oregon State-6.5W33–2561.0W33–25UY
Fri 10/25UNLV vs Boise State+4.0L24–2964.0L24–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9UNLV at Hawai'i-12.0W29–2751.5W29–27ON
Sat 11/16UNLV vs San Diego State-22.0W41–2055.5W41–20ON
Fri 11/22UNLV at San José State-7.5W27–1659.5W27–16UY
Sat 11/30UNLV vs Nevada-17.5W38–1454.5W38–14UY
Fri 12/6UNLV at Boise State+3.5L7–2157.5L7–21UN
Wed 12/18UNLV vs California-3.0W24–1345.0W24–13UY
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UNLV PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UNLV #56
+0.314
San José State #71
+0.298
UNLV Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #94
+0.389
San José State #39
+0.459
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UNLV #27
0.185
San José State #47
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UNLV Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UNLV #33
+7.842
San José State #96
+7.650
UNLV Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UNLV #84
+0.825
San José State #56
+0.813
UNLV Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UNLV #3
65.3
San José State #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UNLV Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UNLV Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UNLV
2.0
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
UNLV
17.2
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UNLV
15.2
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UNLV Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UNLV #52
1.56
San José State #41
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #40
0.56
San José State #58
0.89
UNLV +0.89
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UNLV Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UNLV #1
63.8
San José State #1
45.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UNLV #12
21.1
San José State #63
33.6
UNLV +18.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UNLV with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Barry Odom #1
9–5 (64%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brennan Marion Yr 2 #1
DC Michael Scherer Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself