Nevada at San José State Week 6 College Football Matchup Nevada at San José State Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Nevada✈ 189 miSame TZ
Away
31 35
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Nevada
21
SJSU -7
San José State
31
P&R Line San José State -9.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San José State -7 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San José State -7
O/U 51.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 San José State Coming off BYE 🛋 Nevada Coming off BYE
Nevada 2024 Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Nevada vs SMU+28.0L24–2955.5L24–29UY
Sat 8/31Nevada at Troy+7.5W28–2644.5W28–26OY
Sat 9/7Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.5L17–2056.5L17–20UN
Sat 9/14Nevada at Minnesota+17.5L0–2744.5L0–27UN
Sat 9/21Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.5W49–1654.5W49–16OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Nevada at San José State+7.0L31–3551.5L31–35OY
Sat 10/12Nevada vs Oregon State+3.0W42–3747.0W42–37OY
Fri 10/18Nevada vs Fresno State+3.0L21–2450.0L21–24UY
Sat 10/26Nevada at Hawai'i+2.5L13–3442.0L13–34ON
Sat 11/2Nevada vs Colorado State+2.0L21–3845.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/9Nevada at Boise State+23.5L21–2860.5L21–28UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Nevada vs Air Force-3.0L19–2244.5L19–22UN
Sat 11/30Nevada at UNLV+17.5L14–3854.5L14–38UN
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Nevada #55
+0.314
San José State #71
+0.423
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Nevada #57
+0.466
San José State #39
+0.527
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Nevada #95
0.144
San José State #47
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Nevada #73
+7.461
San José State #96
+7.929
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Nevada #46
+0.853
San José State #56
+0.904
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Nevada #124
73.6
San José State #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San José State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Nevada
-21.6
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Nevada
4.5
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Nevada
26.1
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Nevada #127
0.50
San José State #41
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Nevada #28
0.50
San José State #58
0.67
San José State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Nevada #1
42.0
San José State #1
57.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Nevada #111
36.1
San José State #63
24.0
San José State +15.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Nevada
24.0 — 41.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San José State won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Jeff Choate #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Ioane Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself