Fri, Aug 30 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Sacramento State✈ 88 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -2.5
O/U 62.5
ESPN Bet
Sacramento State 2024 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Sacramento State at San José State | +2.5L24–42 | 62.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Sacramento State at Fresno State | +18.5L30–46 | 55.5 | L30–46 | O | Y |
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | San José State vs Sacramento State | -2.5W42–24 | 62.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | San José State at Air Force | +1.5W17–7 | 43.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | San José State vs Kennesaw State | -16.5W31–10 | 41.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | San José State at Washington State | +13.0L52–54 | 55.5 | L52–54 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | San José State vs Nevada | -7.0W35–31 | 51.5 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | San José State at Colorado State | +2.5L24–31 | 55.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | San José State vs Wyoming | -13.0W24–14 | 53.0 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | San José State at Fresno State | +6.5L10–33 | 55.0 | L10–33 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | San José State at Oregon State | +3.0W24–13 | 58.5 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | San José State vs Boise State | +14.5L21–42 | 62.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | San José State vs UNLV | +7.5L16–27 | 59.5 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | San José State vs Stanford | -2.5W34–31 | 54.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/24 | San José State vs South Florida | +1.5L39–41 | 66.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Sacramento State Edge
Sacramento State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +26.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Sacramento State
Andy Thompson #1
3–9 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bobby Fresques
Yr 2
#1
DC
Andy Thompson
Yr 3
#1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Craig Stutzmann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

