Sacramento State at San José State Week 1 College Football Matchup Sacramento State at San José State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 30 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Sacramento State✈ 88 miSame TZ
24 42
Final
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sacramento State
34
SAC +2.5
San José State
29
P&R Line Sacramento State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 38 New FBS Team
Vegas San José State -2.5 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -2.5
O/U 62.5
ESPN Bet
Sacramento State 2024 Schedule
Sacramento State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Sacramento State at San José State+2.5L24–4262.5L24–42ON
Sat 9/7Sacramento State at Fresno State+18.5L30–4655.5L30–46OY
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Sacramento State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sacramento State
-11.8
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Sacramento State
8.7
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sacramento State
20.5
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sacramento State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sacramento State
0.00
San José State #24
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State
0.00
San José State #69
1.08
Sacramento State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sacramento State #89
25.9
San José State #43
52.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sacramento State #63
38.0
San José State #48
33.3
San José State +26.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Sacramento State
Andy Thompson #1
3–9 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Bobby Fresques Yr 2 #1
DC Andy Thompson Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself