San José State at Air Force Week 2 College Football Matchup San José State at Air Force Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Falcon Stadium Colorado Springs, CO · Turf · 46,692 cap
San José State✈ 930 mi+1 hr TZ
17 7
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
27
Air Force
20
P&R Line San José State -7.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Air Force -1.5 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
Air Force wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Air Force -1.5
O/U 43.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Air Force 2nd straight Home Game
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Air Force 2024 Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Air Force vs Merrimack-30.5W21–647.5W21–6UN
Sat 9/7Air Force vs San José State-1.5L7–1743.5L7–17UN
Sat 9/14Air Force at Baylor+17.5L3–3140.5L3–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Air Force at Wyoming-4.0L19–3133.5L19–31ON
Sat 10/5Air Force vs Navy+10.0L7–3437.0L7–34ON
Sat 10/12Air Force at New Mexico+7.0L37–5256.0L37–52ON
Sat 10/19Air Force vs Colorado State+6.0L13–2143.5L13–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Air Force at Army+18.0L3–2038.5L3–20UY
Sat 11/9Air Force vs Fresno State+9.5W36–2840.5W36–28OY
Sat 11/16Air Force vs Oregon State+3.0W28–044.5W28–0UY
Sat 11/23Air Force at Nevada+3.0W22–1944.5W22–19UY
Sat 11/30Air Force at San Diego State-6.5W31–2043.5W31–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #71
+0.384
Air Force #103
+0.234
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #39
+0.659
Air Force #124
+0.284
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #47
0.175
Air Force #86
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #96
+7.569
Air Force #56
+7.599
Air Force Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #56
+0.856
Air Force #77
+0.829
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #81
71.5
Air Force #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Air Force Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Air Force Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Air Force
-8.3
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Air Force
8.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Air Force
16.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #41
0.00
Air Force #82
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #58
0.00
Air Force #69
0.00
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Air Force Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
36.1
Air Force #1
81.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #63
44.7
Air Force #110
9.4
Air Force +45.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Air Force with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
130–82 (61%) · Yr 18 at school
OC Mike Thiessen Yr 3 #1
DC Brian Knorr Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself