San José State at Fresno State Week 9 College Football Matchup San José State at Fresno State Matchup - Week 9
Sun, Oct 27 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Bulldog Stadium Fresno, CA · Turf · 41,031 cap
San José State✈ 121 miSame TZ
10 33
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
25
Fresno State
29
P&R Line Fresno State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Fresno State -6.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Fresno State, while Game Control favors San José State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Fresno State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
San José State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Fresno State -6.5
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Fresno State 2024 Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Fresno State at Michigan+21.0L10–3048.0L10–30UY
Sat 9/7Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.5W46–3055.5W46–30ON
Sat 9/14Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.5W48–048.5W48–0UY
Sat 9/21Fresno State at New Mexico-12.0W38–2161.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/28Fresno State at UNLV+2.5L14–5951.0L14–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Fresno State vs Washington State+3.5L17–2560.5L17–25UN
Fri 10/18Fresno State at Nevada-3.0W24–2150.0W24–21UN
Sat 10/26Fresno State vs San José State-6.5W33–1055.0W33–10UY
Sat 11/2Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.0L20–2145.5L20–21UN
Sat 11/9Fresno State at Air Force-9.5L28–3640.5L28–36ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.5W28–2243.5W28–22OY
Sat 11/30Fresno State at UCLA+7.5L13–2046.5L13–20UY
Mon 12/23Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.0L20–2841.0L20–28ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #71
+0.267
Fresno State #110
+0.218
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #39
+0.420
Fresno State #89
+0.408
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #47
0.175
Fresno State #113
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #96
+7.225
Fresno State #91
+7.264
Fresno State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #56
+0.843
Fresno State #110
+0.800
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #81
71.5
Fresno State #32
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Fresno State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Fresno State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Fresno State
2.4
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Fresno State
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Fresno State
12.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Fresno State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #41
0.67
Fresno State #104
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #58
0.50
Fresno State #12
0.50
Fresno State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
50.3
Fresno State #1
49.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #63
29.7
Fresno State #38
38.9
San José State +0.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Fresno State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Fresno State
64.0 — 18.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Fresno State won by 23
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
45–22 (67%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Pat McCann Yr 2 #1
DC Kevin Coyle Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself