Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Syracuse -17.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio at Syracuse | +17.5L22–38 | 47.5 | L22–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio vs South Alabama | +1.5W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ohio vs Morgan State | -24.5W21–6 | 45.5 | W21–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio at Kentucky | +19.0L6–41 | 42.0 | L6–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio vs Akron | -8.5W30–10 | 46.0 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio at Central Michigan | -3.0W27–25 | 50.5 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +3.5L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio vs Buffalo | -4.0W47–16 | 46.5 | W47–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Ohio at Kent State | -20.5W41–0 | 53.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -10.5W35–10 | 51.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/20 | Ohio at Toledo | +1.5W24–7 | 47.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Ohio vs Ball State | -17.5W42–21 | 51.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W38–3 | 43.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | -6.5W30–27 | 57.5 | W30–27 | U | N |
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Syracuse vs Ohio | -17.5W38–22 | 47.5 | W38–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Syracuse vs Georgia Tech | +2.5W31–28 | 60.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/20 | Syracuse vs Stanford | -9.5L24–26 | 56.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Syracuse vs Holy Cross | -31.5W42–14 | 59.5 | W42–14 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Syracuse at UNLV | +5.5W44–41 | 55.5 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Syracuse at NC State | -1.0W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | +5.0L13–41 | 62.5 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Syracuse vs Virginia Tech | +3.5W38–31 | 54.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Syracuse at Boston College | +5.5L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Syracuse at California | +10.5W33–25 | 58.0 | W33–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Syracuse vs UConn | -10.0W31–24 | 53.0 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Syracuse vs Miami | +12.5W42–38 | 65.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Syracuse vs Washington State | -19.0W52–35 | 58.5 | W52–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Syracuse
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Syracuse
57.8 — 19.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 16
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Syracuse, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Hauser
Yr 1
#1
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Elijah Robinson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓