Virginia Tech at Syracuse Week 10 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Syracuse Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Carrier Dome Syracuse, NY · Turf · 49,250 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 461 miSame TZ
31 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
29
SYR +3.5
Syracuse
28
P&R Line Virginia Tech -0.5
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -3.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Virginia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Virginia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -3.5
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Virginia Tech · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2024 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.5L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 9/7Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.5W31–1452.5W31–14UN
Sat 9/14Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Sat 9/21Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.0L23–2645.0L23–26ON
Fri 9/27Virginia Tech at Miami+17.5L34–3855.5L34–38OY
Sat 10/5Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.5W31–750.0W31–7UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/26Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.0W21–652.0W21–6UY
Sat 11/2Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.5L31–3854.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/9Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.5L14–2454.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Virginia Tech at Duke-2.5L28–3145.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/30Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.5W37–1744.5W37–17OY
Fri 1/3Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Syracuse vs Ohio-17.5W38–2247.5W38–22ON
Sat 9/7Syracuse vs Georgia Tech+2.5W31–2860.5W31–28UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/20Syracuse vs Stanford-9.5L24–2656.5L24–26UN
Sat 9/28Syracuse vs Holy Cross-31.5W42–1459.5W42–14UN
Fri 10/4Syracuse at UNLV+5.5W44–4155.5W44–41OY
Sat 10/12Syracuse at NC State-1.0W24–1751.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Syracuse at Pittsburgh+5.0L13–4162.5L13–41UN
Sat 11/2Syracuse vs Virginia Tech+3.5W38–3154.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/9Syracuse at Boston College+5.5L31–3751.5L31–37ON
Sat 11/16Syracuse at California+10.5W33–2558.0W33–25UY
Sat 11/23Syracuse vs UConn-10.0W31–2453.0W31–24ON
Sat 11/30Syracuse vs Miami+12.5W42–3865.5W42–38OY
Fri 12/27Syracuse vs Washington State-19.0W52–3558.5W52–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #75
+0.411
Syracuse #28
+0.336
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #100
+0.514
Syracuse #18
+0.551
Syracuse Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #10
0.201
Syracuse #52
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #40
+8.512
Syracuse #38
+7.199
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #87
+0.850
Syracuse #14
+0.870
Syracuse Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #46
69.8
Syracuse #71
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Syracuse
-2.2
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.4
Syracuse
16.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.5
Syracuse
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #8
1.75
Syracuse #4
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #64
1.00
Syracuse #32
1.00
Virginia Tech +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
57.4
Syracuse #1
50.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #41
28.4
Syracuse #54
33.7
Virginia Tech +7.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
11.7 — 73.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 3 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Elijah Robinson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself