South Carolina at Vanderbilt Week 11 College Football Matchup South Carolina at Vanderbilt Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium Nashville, TN · Turf · 40,350 cap
South Carolina✈ 360 mi-1 hr TZ
28 7
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Carolina
29
SC -6
Vanderbilt
18
P&R Line South Carolina -10.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas South Carolina -6.0 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Vanderbilt, while Game Control favors South Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -6.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2024 Schedule
South Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31South Carolina vs Old Dominion-20.5W23–1949.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/7South Carolina at Kentucky+9.5W31–641.5W31–6UY
Sat 9/14South Carolina vs LSU+7.0L33–3650.0L33–36OY
Sat 9/21South Carolina vs Akron-25.0W50–742.0W50–7OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5South Carolina vs Ole Miss+10.0L3–2753.0L3–27UN
Sat 10/12South Carolina at Alabama+21.0L25–2750.0L25–27OY
Sat 10/19South Carolina at Oklahoma-1.0W35–940.5W35–9OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2South Carolina vs Texas A&M+3.0W44–2043.5W44–20OY
Sat 11/9South Carolina at Vanderbilt-6.0W28–744.5W28–7UY
Sat 11/16South Carolina vs Missouri-10.5W34–3042.5W34–30ON
Sat 11/23South Carolina vs Wofford-42.5W56–1249.5W56–12OY
Sat 11/30South Carolina at Clemson+2.5W17–1448.5W17–14UY
Tue 12/31South Carolina vs Illinois-9.5L17–2150.0L17–21UN
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech+13.5W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/7Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State-32.5W55–047.5W55–0OY
Sat 9/14Vanderbilt at Georgia State-8.5L32–3645.5L32–36ON
Sat 9/21Vanderbilt at Missouri+17.5L27–3052.0L27–30OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Vanderbilt vs Alabama+23.5W40–3553.5W40–35OY
Sat 10/12Vanderbilt at Kentucky+12.5W20–1344.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/19Vanderbilt vs Ball State-27.5W24–1457.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/26Vanderbilt vs Texas+17.0L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 11/2Vanderbilt at Auburn+7.5W17–748.0W17–7UY
Sat 11/9Vanderbilt vs South Carolina+6.0L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Vanderbilt at LSU+10.0L17–2453.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Vanderbilt vs Tennessee+9.5L23–3645.5L23–36ON
Fri 12/27Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech+3.0W35–2749.0W35–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
South Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Carolina #48
+0.468
Vanderbilt #76
+0.250
South Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #23
+0.733
Vanderbilt #33
+0.489
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Carolina #21
0.189
Vanderbilt #65
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina #62
+8.185
Vanderbilt #34
+7.442
South Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Carolina #58
+0.906
Vanderbilt #75
+0.843
South Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Carolina #41
69.7
Vanderbilt #22
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Carolina
5.3
Vanderbilt
3.7
Offense Rating
South Carolina
18.3
Vanderbilt
16.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Carolina
13.0
Vanderbilt
12.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Carolina #59
1.13
Vanderbilt #48
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #38
1.00
Vanderbilt #39
0.63
Vanderbilt +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? South Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Carolina #1
58.4
Vanderbilt #1
49.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #23
27.3
Vanderbilt #51
28.0
South Carolina +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
20–18 (53%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Dowell Loggains Yr 2 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Clark Lea Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself