Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt Week 1 College Football Matchup Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 31 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium Nashville, TN · Turf · 40,350 cap
Virginia Tech✈ 361 mi-1 hr TZ
27 34
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia Tech
28
Vanderbilt
24
P&R Line Virginia Tech -3.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -13.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -13.5
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia Tech 2024 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.5L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 9/7Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.5W31–1452.5W31–14UN
Sat 9/14Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Sat 9/21Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.0L23–2645.0L23–26ON
Fri 9/27Virginia Tech at Miami+17.5L34–3855.5L34–38OY
Sat 10/5Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.5W31–750.0W31–7UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/26Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.0W21–652.0W21–6UY
Sat 11/2Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.5L31–3854.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/9Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.5L14–2454.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Virginia Tech at Duke-2.5L28–3145.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/30Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.5W37–1744.5W37–17OY
Fri 1/3Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech+13.5W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/7Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State-32.5W55–047.5W55–0OY
Sat 9/14Vanderbilt at Georgia State-8.5L32–3645.5L32–36ON
Sat 9/21Vanderbilt at Missouri+17.5L27–3052.0L27–30OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Vanderbilt vs Alabama+23.5W40–3553.5W40–35OY
Sat 10/12Vanderbilt at Kentucky+12.5W20–1344.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/19Vanderbilt vs Ball State-27.5W24–1457.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/26Vanderbilt vs Texas+17.0L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 11/2Vanderbilt at Auburn+7.5W17–748.0W17–7UY
Sat 11/9Vanderbilt vs South Carolina+6.0L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Vanderbilt at LSU+10.0L17–2453.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Vanderbilt vs Tennessee+9.5L23–3645.5L23–36ON
Fri 12/27Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech+3.0W35–2749.0W35–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia Tech #75
+0.423
Vanderbilt #76
+0.258
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #100
+0.536
Vanderbilt #33
+0.511
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #10
0.201
Vanderbilt #65
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia Tech #40
+8.443
Vanderbilt #34
+7.225
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #87
+0.885
Vanderbilt #75
+0.810
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia Tech #46
69.8
Vanderbilt #22
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia Tech
5.9
Vanderbilt
3.7
Offense Rating
Virginia Tech
18.3
Vanderbilt
14.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia Tech
12.4
Vanderbilt
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia Tech #8
0.00
Vanderbilt #48
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #64
0.00
Vanderbilt #39
0.00
Virginia Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia Tech #1
0.0
Vanderbilt #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia Tech #41
0.0
Vanderbilt #51
0.0
Virginia Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
63.5 — 15.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Vanderbilt, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 3 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Clark Lea Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself