Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville, TN
·
Turf
·
40,350 cap
Tennessee✈ 161 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -9.5
O/U 45.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Tennessee vs Chattanooga | -38.5W69–3 | 56.5 | W69–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Tennessee vs NC State | -10.0W51–10 | 60.5 | W51–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Tennessee vs Kent State | -49.5W71–0 | 61.5 | W71–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Tennessee at Oklahoma | -6.0W25–15 | 57.0 | W25–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Tennessee at Arkansas | -14.0L14–19 | 57.5 | L14–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Tennessee vs Florida | -13.5W23–17 | 54.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +3.5W24–17 | 57.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -17.5W28–18 | 45.5 | W28–18 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Tennessee vs Mississippi State | -26.5W33–14 | 61.5 | W33–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Tennessee at Georgia | +8.5L17–31 | 47.0 | L17–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Tennessee vs UTEP | -41.5W56–0 | 54.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -9.5W36–23 | 45.5 | W36–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/21 | Tennessee at Ohio State | +7.5L17–42 | 47.0 | L17–42 | O | N |
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech | +13.5W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State | -32.5W55–0 | 47.5 | W55–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Vanderbilt at Georgia State | -8.5L32–36 | 45.5 | L32–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Vanderbilt at Missouri | +17.5L27–30 | 52.0 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama | +23.5W40–35 | 53.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | +12.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Vanderbilt vs Ball State | -27.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Vanderbilt vs Texas | +17.0L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Vanderbilt at Auburn | +7.5W17–7 | 48.0 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Vanderbilt vs South Carolina | +6.0L7–28 | 44.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Vanderbilt at LSU | +10.0L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Vanderbilt vs Tennessee | +9.5L23–36 | 45.5 | L23–36 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech | +3.0W35–27 | 49.0 | W35–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +1.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +14.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Tennessee
39.2 — 47.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
27–12 (69%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 3
#1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clark Lea
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓