Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
·
Turf
·
71,168 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 358 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Missouri
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Missouri wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -17.5
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech | +13.5W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State | -32.5W55–0 | 47.5 | W55–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Vanderbilt at Georgia State | -8.5L32–36 | 45.5 | L32–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Vanderbilt at Missouri | +17.5L27–30 | 52.0 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama | +23.5W40–35 | 53.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | +12.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Vanderbilt vs Ball State | -27.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Vanderbilt vs Texas | +17.0L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Vanderbilt at Auburn | +7.5W17–7 | 48.0 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Vanderbilt vs South Carolina | +6.0L7–28 | 44.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Vanderbilt at LSU | +10.0L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Vanderbilt vs Tennessee | +9.5L23–36 | 45.5 | L23–36 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech | +3.0W35–27 | 49.0 | W35–27 | O | Y |
Missouri 2024 Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Missouri vs Murray State | -50.5W51–0 | 62.5 | W51–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Missouri vs Buffalo | -34.5W38–0 | 53.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Missouri vs Boston College | -14.5W27–21 | 51.5 | W27–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Missouri vs Vanderbilt | -17.5W30–27 | 52.0 | W30–27 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Missouri at Texas A&M | +3.0L10–41 | 47.5 | L10–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Missouri at Massachusetts | -27.0W45–3 | 54.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Missouri vs Auburn | -3.5W21–17 | 49.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Missouri at Alabama | +16.0L0–34 | 51.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Missouri vs Oklahoma | +3.5W30–23 | 41.5 | W30–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Missouri at South Carolina | +10.5L30–34 | 42.5 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Missouri at Mississippi State | -9.5W39–20 | 58.0 | W39–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Missouri vs Arkansas | -3.5W28–21 | 51.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Mon 12/30 | Missouri vs Iowa | -1.0W27–24 | 41.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +21.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
26.6 — 29.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Missouri won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clark Lea
Yr 1
#1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
28–21 (57%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kirby Moore
Yr 2
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓