Vanderbilt at Kentucky Week 7 College Football Matchup Vanderbilt at Kentucky Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Commonwealth Stadium Lexington, KY · Turf · 61,000 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 181 mi+1 hr TZ
20 13
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Vanderbilt
21
VAN +12.5
Kentucky
24
P&R Line Kentucky -2.5
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Kentucky -12.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kentucky, while Game Control favors Vanderbilt. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -12.5
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kentucky Coming off BYE
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech+13.5W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/7Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State-32.5W55–047.5W55–0OY
Sat 9/14Vanderbilt at Georgia State-8.5L32–3645.5L32–36ON
Sat 9/21Vanderbilt at Missouri+17.5L27–3052.0L27–30OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Vanderbilt vs Alabama+23.5W40–3553.5W40–35OY
Sat 10/12Vanderbilt at Kentucky+12.5W20–1344.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/19Vanderbilt vs Ball State-27.5W24–1457.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/26Vanderbilt vs Texas+17.0L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 11/2Vanderbilt at Auburn+7.5W17–748.0W17–7UY
Sat 11/9Vanderbilt vs South Carolina+6.0L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Vanderbilt at LSU+10.0L17–2453.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Vanderbilt vs Tennessee+9.5L23–3645.5L23–36ON
Fri 12/27Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech+3.0W35–2749.0W35–27OY
Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kentucky vs Southern Miss-25.5W31–050.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/7Kentucky vs South Carolina-9.5L6–3141.5L6–31UN
Sat 9/14Kentucky vs Georgia+24.0L12–1345.0L12–13UY
Sat 9/21Kentucky vs Ohio-19.0W41–642.0W41–6OY
Sat 9/28Kentucky at Ole Miss+15.0W20–1751.5W20–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kentucky vs Vanderbilt-12.5L13–2044.5L13–20UN
Sat 10/19Kentucky at Florida-2.5L20–4842.5L20–48ON
Sat 10/26Kentucky vs Auburn-2.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/2Kentucky at Tennessee+17.5L18–2845.5L18–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kentucky vs Murray State-41.5W48–654.5W48–6UY
Sat 11/23Kentucky at Texas+18.5L14–3147.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/30Kentucky vs Louisville+3.5L14–4148.5L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Vanderbilt PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Vanderbilt #76
+0.332
Kentucky #118
+0.331
Vanderbilt Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #33
+0.526
Kentucky #117
+0.493
Vanderbilt Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #65
0.163
Kentucky #56
0.169
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Vanderbilt #34
+7.696
Kentucky #104
+7.710
Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Vanderbilt #75
+0.882
Kentucky #89
+0.884
Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Vanderbilt #22
68.7
Kentucky #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Vanderbilt Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Vanderbilt
3.7
Kentucky
0.2
Offense Rating
Vanderbilt
16.6
Kentucky
16.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Vanderbilt
12.8
Kentucky
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Vanderbilt #48
1.25
Kentucky #95
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Vanderbilt #39
1.00
Kentucky #48
0.40
Kentucky +0.15
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Vanderbilt #1
54.4
Kentucky #1
44.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Vanderbilt #51
24.1
Kentucky #93
34.3
Vanderbilt +10.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Clark Lea Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
73–65 (53%) · Yr 12 at school
OC Bush Hamdan Yr 1 #1
DC Brad White Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself