North Carolina at South Carolina Week 1 College Football Matchup North Carolina at South Carolina Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 30 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, NC · Turf · 75,412 cap
North Carolina✈ 111 miSame TZ South Carolina✈ 87 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
21 38
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
30
SC +12.5
South Carolina
27
P&R Line North Carolina -2.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -12.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -12.5
O/U 57.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 South Carolina 3rd straight Home Game 🚌 North Carolina 2nd straight Road Game
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3North Carolina at Virginia Tech-5.5L10–1763.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/11North Carolina vs Georgia State-26.0W59–1765.0W59–17OY
Sat 9/18North Carolina vs Virginia-7.5W59–3967.0W59–39OY
Sat 9/25North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-14.5L22–4566.0L22–45ON
Sat 10/2North Carolina vs Duke-19.5W38–774.0W38–7UY
Sat 10/9North Carolina vs Florida State-17.5L25–3564.5L25–35UN
Sat 10/16North Carolina vs Miami-7.5W45–4263.5W45–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30North Carolina at Notre Dame+3.5L34–4463.0L34–44ON
Sat 11/6North Carolina vs Wake Forest-2.5W58–5578.0W58–55OY
Thu 11/11North Carolina at Pittsburgh+6.5L23–3072.0L23–30UN
Sat 11/20North Carolina vs Wofford-37.0W34–1462.0W34–14UN
Fri 11/26North Carolina at NC State+6.5L30–3462.0L30–34OY
Thu 12/30North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois-31.5W46–055.5W46–0UY
Sat 9/11South Carolina at East Carolina-3.0W20–1756.5W20–17UN
Sat 9/18South Carolina at Georgia+31.5L13–4047.5L13–40OY
Sat 9/25South Carolina vs Kentucky+4.5L10–1649.0L10–16UN
Sat 10/2South Carolina vs Troy-6.5W23–1443.0W23–14UY
Sat 10/9South Carolina at Tennessee+10.5L20–4557.0L20–45ON
Sat 10/16South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-19.0W21–2050.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/23South Carolina at Texas A&M+19.0L14–4446.0L14–44ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6South Carolina vs Florida+20.5W40–1752.0W40–17OY
Sat 11/13South Carolina at Missouri+1.0L28–3156.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/20South Carolina vs Auburn+7.0W21–1745.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/27South Carolina vs Clemson+11.5L0–3042.5L0–30UN
Thu 12/30South Carolina vs North Carolina+12.5W38–2157.5W38–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.470
South Carolina
+0.445
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.407
South Carolina
+0.716
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.153
South Carolina
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+7.910
South Carolina
+7.486
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.896
South Carolina
+0.860
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
71.3
South Carolina
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
South Carolina
5.3
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
South Carolina
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
South Carolina
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #5
1.91
South Carolina #70
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #90
1.27
South Carolina #95
1.00
North Carolina +1.16
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
52.7
South Carolina #1
30.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #64
36.5
South Carolina #101
59.3
North Carolina +22.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Carolina
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
75.6 — 14.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 1 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Marcus Satterfield Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself