North Carolina at Pittsburgh Week 11 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 11
Fri, Nov 12 2021 · Week 11 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
North Carolina✈ 318 miSame TZ
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Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
27
PITT -6.5
Pittsburgh
41
P&R Line Pittsburgh -13.5
P&R Total O/U 68
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -6.5 · O/U 72.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -6.5
O/U 72.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3North Carolina at Virginia Tech-5.5L10–1763.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/11North Carolina vs Georgia State-26.0W59–1765.0W59–17OY
Sat 9/18North Carolina vs Virginia-7.5W59–3967.0W59–39OY
Sat 9/25North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-14.5L22–4566.0L22–45ON
Sat 10/2North Carolina vs Duke-19.5W38–774.0W38–7UY
Sat 10/9North Carolina vs Florida State-17.5L25–3564.5L25–35UN
Sat 10/16North Carolina vs Miami-7.5W45–4263.5W45–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30North Carolina at Notre Dame+3.5L34–4463.0L34–44ON
Sat 11/6North Carolina vs Wake Forest-2.5W58–5578.0W58–55OY
Thu 11/11North Carolina at Pittsburgh+6.5L23–3072.0L23–30UN
Sat 11/20North Carolina vs Wofford-37.0W34–1462.0W34–14UN
Fri 11/26North Carolina at NC State+6.5L30–3462.0L30–34OY
Thu 12/30North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.372
Pittsburgh
+0.556
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.385
Pittsburgh
+0.758
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.153
Pittsburgh
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+8.247
Pittsburgh
+8.829
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.862
Pittsburgh
+0.935
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
71.3
Pittsburgh
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #5
2.00
Pittsburgh #7
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #90
1.33
Pittsburgh #12
0.50
North Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
55.1
Pittsburgh #1
71.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #64
33.0
Pittsburgh #7
16.1
Pittsburgh +15.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
2 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
86.9 — 5.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 1 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself