Sun, Nov 21 2021
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Auburn✈ 275 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Auburn
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Auburn entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Auburn wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Auburn wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Auburn -7
O/U 45.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Auburn
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Auburn 2021 Schedule
Auburn's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Auburn vs Akron | -37.5W60–10 | 56.5 | W60–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Auburn vs Alabama State | -49.5W62–0 | 60.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Auburn at Penn State | +4.0L20–28 | 53.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Auburn vs Georgia State | -27.5W34–24 | 57.5 | W34–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Auburn at LSU | +2.5W24–19 | 57.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Auburn vs Georgia | +14.5L10–34 | 45.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Auburn at Arkansas | +4.5W38–23 | 54.0 | W38–23 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Auburn vs Ole Miss | -3.0W31–20 | 67.5 | W31–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Auburn at Texas A&M | +4.5L3–20 | 49.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Auburn vs Mississippi State | -6.0L34–43 | 51.0 | L34–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Auburn at South Carolina | -7.0L17–21 | 45.5 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Auburn vs Alabama | +21.0L22–24 | 57.5 | L22–24 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Auburn vs Houston | -2.0L13–17 | 51.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois | -31.5W46–0 | 55.5 | W46–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Carolina at East Carolina | -3.0W20–17 | 56.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Carolina at Georgia | +31.5L13–40 | 47.5 | L13–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | +4.5L10–16 | 49.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | South Carolina vs Troy | -6.5W23–14 | 43.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Carolina at Tennessee | +10.5L20–45 | 57.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | -19.0W21–20 | 50.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | South Carolina at Texas A&M | +19.0L14–44 | 46.0 | L14–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | South Carolina vs Florida | +20.5W40–17 | 52.0 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | South Carolina at Missouri | +1.0L28–31 | 56.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Carolina vs Auburn | +7.0W21–17 | 45.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | South Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5L0–30 | 42.5 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Thu 12/30 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | +12.5W38–21 | 57.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Auburn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Auburn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +17.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Auburn
28.1 — 52.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 4
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Auburn with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Auburn
Bryan Harsin #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derek Mason
Yr 1
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Marcus Satterfield
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓