Virginia at North Carolina Week 3 College Football Matchup Virginia at North Carolina Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 18 2021 · Week 3 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Virginia✈ 149 miSame TZ
Away
39 59
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
33
North Carolina
34
P&R Line North Carolina -1.5
P&R Total O/U 67
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas North Carolina -7.5 · O/U 67.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Virginia wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -7.5
O/U 67.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Virginia vs William & Mary-30.5W43–052.5W43–0UY
Sat 9/11Virginia vs Illinois-10.5W42–1457.0W42–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia at North Carolina+7.5L39–5967.0L39–59ON
Fri 9/24Virginia vs Wake Forest-3.5L17–3771.0L17–37UN
Thu 9/30Virginia at Miami+3.5W30–2863.5W30–28UY
Sat 10/9Virginia at Louisville+2.5W34–3369.5W34–33UY
Sat 10/16Virginia vs Duke-10.5W48–069.5W48–0UY
Sat 10/23Virginia vs Georgia Tech-6.5W48–4066.0W48–40OY
Sat 10/30Virginia at BYU+2.5L49–6666.5L49–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Virginia vs Notre Dame+7.5L3–2862.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/20Virginia at Pittsburgh+12.5L38–4869.0L38–48OY
Sat 11/27Virginia vs Virginia Tech-7.0L24–2963.5L24–29UN
Wed 12/29Virginia vs SMU-2.571.0
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3North Carolina at Virginia Tech-5.5L10–1763.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/11North Carolina vs Georgia State-26.0W59–1765.0W59–17OY
Sat 9/18North Carolina vs Virginia-7.5W59–3967.0W59–39OY
Sat 9/25North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-14.5L22–4566.0L22–45ON
Sat 10/2North Carolina vs Duke-19.5W38–774.0W38–7UY
Sat 10/9North Carolina vs Florida State-17.5L25–3564.5L25–35UN
Sat 10/16North Carolina vs Miami-7.5W45–4263.5W45–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30North Carolina at Notre Dame+3.5L34–4463.0L34–44ON
Sat 11/6North Carolina vs Wake Forest-2.5W58–5578.0W58–55OY
Thu 11/11North Carolina at Pittsburgh+6.5L23–3072.0L23–30UN
Sat 11/20North Carolina vs Wofford-37.0W34–1462.0W34–14UN
Fri 11/26North Carolina at NC State+6.5L30–3462.0L30–34OY
Thu 12/30North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia
+0.582
North Carolina
+0.618
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia
+0.743
North Carolina
+0.655
Virginia Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia
0.143
North Carolina
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia
+8.573
North Carolina
+8.325
Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia
+0.962
North Carolina
+0.933
Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia
74.3
North Carolina
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #55
2.00
North Carolina #5
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #124
0.00
North Carolina #90
0.00
Virginia +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
97.8
North Carolina #1
54.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #74
1.5
North Carolina #64
39.2
Virginia +43.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
4 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
North Carolina
82.8 — 7.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 20
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 1 #1
DC Kelly Poppinga Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 1 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself