Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 360 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
South Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
South Carolina -19
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2021 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State | -21.0L3–23 | 45.0 | L3–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Vanderbilt at Colorado State | +6.5W24–21 | 52.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Vanderbilt vs Stanford | +13.0L23–41 | 49.0 | L23–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +36.0L0–62 | 54.5 | L0–62 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Vanderbilt vs UConn | -14.5W30–28 | 51.5 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +39.0L0–42 | 60.5 | L0–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +19.0L20–21 | 50.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State | +21.0L6–45 | 53.0 | L6–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +16.0L28–37 | 62.5 | L28–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +21.5L17–34 | 52.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +35.5L17–31 | 66.5 | L17–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +33.0L21–45 | 65.0 | L21–45 | O | Y |
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois | -31.5W46–0 | 55.5 | W46–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Carolina at East Carolina | -3.0W20–17 | 56.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Carolina at Georgia | +31.5L13–40 | 47.5 | L13–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | +4.5L10–16 | 49.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | South Carolina vs Troy | -6.5W23–14 | 43.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Carolina at Tennessee | +10.5L20–45 | 57.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | -19.0W21–20 | 50.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | South Carolina at Texas A&M | +19.0L14–44 | 46.0 | L14–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | South Carolina vs Florida | +20.5W40–17 | 52.0 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | South Carolina at Missouri | +1.0L28–31 | 56.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Carolina vs Auburn | +7.0W21–17 | 45.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | South Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5L0–30 | 42.5 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Thu 12/30 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | +12.5W38–21 | 57.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
David Raih
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jesse Minter
Yr 1
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Marcus Satterfield
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓