Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
·
62,980 cap
Georgia State✈ 338 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -26
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia State 2021 Schedule
Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia State vs Army | -2.5L10–43 | 50.0 | L10–43 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia State at North Carolina | +26.0L17–59 | 65.0 | L17–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia State vs Charlotte | -4.5W20–9 | 62.5 | W20–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia State at Auburn | +27.5L24–34 | 57.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia State vs App State | +10.5L16–45 | 54.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia State at UL Monroe | -16.0W55–21 | 49.5 | W55–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Georgia State vs Texas State | -10.0W28–16 | 58.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia State at Georgia Southern | -6.0W21–14 | 55.0 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Georgia State at Louisiana | +13.5L17–21 | 53.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia State at Coastal Carolina | +12.5W42–40 | 53.5 | W42–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia State vs Arkansas State | -15.5W28–20 | 66.0 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia State vs Troy | -6.5W37–10 | 49.5 | W37–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/25 | Georgia State vs Ball State | -6.0W51–20 | 52.5 | W51–20 | O | Y |
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | North Carolina at Virginia Tech | -5.5L10–17 | 63.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | North Carolina vs Georgia State | -26.0W59–17 | 65.0 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -7.5W59–39 | 67.0 | W59–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -14.5L22–45 | 66.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | North Carolina vs Duke | -19.5W38–7 | 74.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | North Carolina vs Florida State | -17.5L25–35 | 64.5 | L25–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | North Carolina vs Miami | -7.5W45–42 | 63.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | North Carolina at Notre Dame | +3.5L34–44 | 63.0 | L34–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -2.5W58–55 | 78.0 | W58–55 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +6.5L23–30 | 72.0 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | North Carolina vs Wofford | -37.0W34–14 | 62.0 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | North Carolina at NC State | +6.5L30–34 | 62.0 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | -12.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Carolina
4 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
North Carolina
98.3 — 0.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 42
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Shawn Elliott #1
23–27 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Brad Glenn
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Fuqua
Yr 1
#1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓