Sat, Oct 9 2021
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
·
Turf
·
62,980 cap
Florida State✈ 484 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -17.5
O/U 64.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2021 Schedule
Florida State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/5 | Florida State vs Notre Dame | +7.0L38–41 | 53.5 | L38–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida State vs Jacksonville State | -27.5L17–20 | 56.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida State at Wake Forest | +4.5L14–35 | 63.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida State vs Louisville | -1.5L23–31 | 61.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida State vs Syracuse | -5.5W33–30 | 50.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida State at North Carolina | +17.5W35–25 | 64.5 | W35–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida State vs Massachusetts | -35.0W59–3 | 59.0 | W59–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida State at Clemson | +9.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida State vs NC State | +3.0L14–28 | 55.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida State vs Miami | +2.5W31–28 | 61.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida State at Boston College | +3.0W26–23 | 55.5 | W26–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida State at Florida | +4.0L21–24 | 58.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | North Carolina at Virginia Tech | -5.5L10–17 | 63.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | North Carolina vs Georgia State | -26.0W59–17 | 65.0 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -7.5W59–39 | 67.0 | W59–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -14.5L22–45 | 66.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | North Carolina vs Duke | -19.5W38–7 | 74.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | North Carolina vs Florida State | -17.5L25–35 | 64.5 | L25–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | North Carolina vs Miami | -7.5W45–42 | 63.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | North Carolina at Notre Dame | +3.5L34–44 | 63.0 | L34–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -2.5W58–55 | 78.0 | W58–55 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +6.5L23–30 | 72.0 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | North Carolina vs Wofford | -37.0W34–14 | 62.0 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | North Carolina at NC State | +6.5L30–34 | 62.0 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | -12.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +1.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +32.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida State
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida State
41.4 — 45.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida State won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 1
#1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓