North Carolina at Virginia Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Sep 3 2021 · Week 1 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
North Carolina✈ 118 miSame TZ
10 17
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
31
VT +5.5
Virginia Tech
30
P&R Line North Carolina -1.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -5.5 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -5.5
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3North Carolina at Virginia Tech-5.5L10–1763.5L10–17UN
Sat 9/11North Carolina vs Georgia State-26.0W59–1765.0W59–17OY
Sat 9/18North Carolina vs Virginia-7.5W59–3967.0W59–39OY
Sat 9/25North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-14.5L22–4566.0L22–45ON
Sat 10/2North Carolina vs Duke-19.5W38–774.0W38–7UY
Sat 10/9North Carolina vs Florida State-17.5L25–3564.5L25–35UN
Sat 10/16North Carolina vs Miami-7.5W45–4263.5W45–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30North Carolina at Notre Dame+3.5L34–4463.0L34–44ON
Sat 11/6North Carolina vs Wake Forest-2.5W58–5578.0W58–55OY
Thu 11/11North Carolina at Pittsburgh+6.5L23–3072.0L23–30UN
Sat 11/20North Carolina vs Wofford-37.0W34–1462.0W34–14UN
Fri 11/26North Carolina at NC State+6.5L30–3462.0L30–34OY
Thu 12/30North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Virginia Tech vs North Carolina+5.5W17–1063.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/11Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee-20.0W35–1455.0W35–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia Tech at West Virginia+2.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
Sat 9/25Virginia Tech vs Richmond-29.0W21–1050.0W21–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame-1.0L29–3246.5L29–32ON
Sat 10/16Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+6.0L7–2855.5L7–28UN
Sat 10/23Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-3.5L36–4145.5L36–41ON
Sat 10/30Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+3.0W26–1755.0W26–17UY
Fri 11/5Virginia Tech at Boston College-1.0L3–1751.0L3–17UN
Sat 11/13Virginia Tech vs Duke-13.5W48–1750.5W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Virginia Tech at Miami+7.0L26–3855.5L26–38ON
Sat 11/27Virginia Tech at Virginia+7.0W29–2463.5W29–24UY
Wed 12/29Virginia Tech vs Maryland+4.0L10–5455.0L10–54ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina
+0.513
Virginia Tech
+0.438
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+0.466
Virginia Tech
+0.634
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina
0.153
Virginia Tech
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina
+8.419
Virginia Tech
+7.512
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina
+0.883
Virginia Tech
+0.869
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina
71.3
Virginia Tech
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Virginia Tech
18.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Virginia Tech
12.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #5
0.00
Virginia Tech #111
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #90
0.00
Virginia Tech #66
0.00
North Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
0.0
Virginia Tech #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #64
0.0
Virginia Tech #75
0.0
North Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Phil Longo Yr 1 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Justin Hamilton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself