Fri, Sep 3 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Lane Stadium
Blacksburg, VA
·
Turf
·
66,233 cap
North Carolina✈ 118 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -5.5
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2021 Schedule
North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | North Carolina at Virginia Tech | -5.5L10–17 | 63.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | North Carolina vs Georgia State | -26.0W59–17 | 65.0 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | North Carolina vs Virginia | -7.5W59–39 | 67.0 | W59–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | -14.5L22–45 | 66.0 | L22–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | North Carolina vs Duke | -19.5W38–7 | 74.0 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | North Carolina vs Florida State | -17.5L25–35 | 64.5 | L25–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | North Carolina vs Miami | -7.5W45–42 | 63.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | North Carolina at Notre Dame | +3.5L34–44 | 63.0 | L34–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -2.5W58–55 | 78.0 | W58–55 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +6.5L23–30 | 72.0 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | North Carolina vs Wofford | -37.0W34–14 | 62.0 | W34–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | North Carolina at NC State | +6.5L30–34 | 62.0 | L30–34 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | North Carolina vs South Carolina | -12.5L21–38 | 57.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Virginia Tech vs North Carolina | +5.5W17–10 | 63.5 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -20.0W35–14 | 55.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Virginia Tech at West Virginia | +2.0L21–27 | 49.5 | L21–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Virginia Tech vs Richmond | -29.0W21–10 | 50.0 | W21–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame | -1.0L29–32 | 46.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh | +6.0L7–28 | 55.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Virginia Tech vs Syracuse | -3.5L36–41 | 45.5 | L36–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | +3.0W26–17 | 55.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/5 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | -1.0L3–17 | 51.0 | L3–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Virginia Tech vs Duke | -13.5W48–17 | 50.5 | W48–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Virginia Tech at Miami | +7.0L26–38 | 55.5 | L26–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Virginia Tech at Virginia | +7.0W29–24 | 63.5 | W29–24 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Virginia Tech vs Maryland | +4.0L10–54 | 55.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
17–11 (61%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#1
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Justin Hamilton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

