Kentucky at South Carolina Week 4 College Football Matchup Kentucky at South Carolina Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 25 2021 · Week 4 · 🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, SC · Turf · 80,250 cap
Kentucky✈ 340 miSame TZ
Away
16 10
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kentucky
28
South Carolina
21
P&R Line Kentucky -7
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kentucky -4.5 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kentucky wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Kentucky wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -4.5
O/U 49.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kentucky · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kentucky vs UL Monroe-31.0W45–1054.0W45–10OY
Sat 9/11Kentucky vs Missouri-5.5W35–2856.5W35–28OY
Sat 9/18Kentucky vs Chattanooga-33.5W28–2348.0W28–23ON
Sat 9/25Kentucky at South Carolina-4.5W16–1049.0W16–10UY
Sat 10/2Kentucky vs Florida+7.5W20–1356.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/9Kentucky vs LSU-2.0W42–2150.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/16Kentucky at Georgia+21.5L13–3044.5L13–30UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Kentucky at Mississippi State+1.0L17–3147.0L17–31ON
Sat 11/6Kentucky vs Tennessee+1.0L42–4557.5L42–45ON
Sat 11/13Kentucky at Vanderbilt-21.5W34–1752.5W34–17UN
Sat 11/20Kentucky vs New Mexico State-35.5W56–1661.0W56–16OY
Sat 11/27Kentucky at Louisville+3.0W52–2158.0W52–21OY
Sat 1/1Kentucky vs Iowa-3.0W20–1743.5W20–17UN
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois-31.5W46–055.5W46–0UY
Sat 9/11South Carolina at East Carolina-3.0W20–1756.5W20–17UN
Sat 9/18South Carolina at Georgia+31.5L13–4047.5L13–40OY
Sat 9/25South Carolina vs Kentucky+4.5L10–1649.0L10–16UN
Sat 10/2South Carolina vs Troy-6.5W23–1443.0W23–14UY
Sat 10/9South Carolina at Tennessee+10.5L20–4557.0L20–45ON
Sat 10/16South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-19.0W21–2050.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/23South Carolina at Texas A&M+19.0L14–4446.0L14–44ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6South Carolina vs Florida+20.5W40–1752.0W40–17OY
Sat 11/13South Carolina at Missouri+1.0L28–3156.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/20South Carolina vs Auburn+7.0W21–1745.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/27South Carolina vs Clemson+11.5L0–3042.5L0–30UN
Thu 12/30South Carolina vs North Carolina+12.5W38–2157.5W38–21OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kentucky
+0.442
South Carolina
+0.345
Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kentucky
+0.496
South Carolina
+0.630
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kentucky
0.176
South Carolina
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kentucky
+8.261
South Carolina
+6.849
Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kentucky
+0.938
South Carolina
+0.845
Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kentucky
72.3
South Carolina
70.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
South Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kentucky
0.2
South Carolina
5.3
Offense Rating
Kentucky
16.3
South Carolina
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kentucky
16.1
South Carolina
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kentucky #57
2.00
South Carolina #70
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kentucky #64
0.00
South Carolina #95
0.67
Kentucky +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kentucky #1
89.8
South Carolina #1
38.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kentucky #23
4.0
South Carolina #101
53.3
Kentucky +51.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
52–50 (51%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Liam Coen Yr 1 #1
DC Brad White Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Marcus Satterfield Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself