South Carolina at Missouri Week 11 College Football Matchup South Carolina at Missouri Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 13 2021 · Week 11 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
South Carolina✈ 715 mi-1 hr TZ
28 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
South Carolina
28
MIZ -1
Missouri
29
P&R Line Missouri -1.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -1 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Missouri wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Missouri wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Missouri -1
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → South Carolina · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois-31.5W46–055.5W46–0UY
Sat 9/11South Carolina at East Carolina-3.0W20–1756.5W20–17UN
Sat 9/18South Carolina at Georgia+31.5L13–4047.5L13–40OY
Sat 9/25South Carolina vs Kentucky+4.5L10–1649.0L10–16UN
Sat 10/2South Carolina vs Troy-6.5W23–1443.0W23–14UY
Sat 10/9South Carolina at Tennessee+10.5L20–4557.0L20–45ON
Sat 10/16South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-19.0W21–2050.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/23South Carolina at Texas A&M+19.0L14–4446.0L14–44ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6South Carolina vs Florida+20.5W40–1752.0W40–17OY
Sat 11/13South Carolina at Missouri+1.0L28–3156.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/20South Carolina vs Auburn+7.0W21–1745.5W21–17UY
Sat 11/27South Carolina vs Clemson+11.5L0–3042.5L0–30UN
Thu 12/30South Carolina vs North Carolina+12.5W38–2157.5W38–21OY
Missouri 2021 Schedule
Missouri's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Missouri vs Central Michigan-13.5W34–2459.0W34–24UN
Sat 9/11Missouri at Kentucky+5.5L28–3556.5L28–35ON
Sat 9/18Missouri vs Southeast Missouri State-34.5W59–2859.0W59–28ON
Sat 9/25Missouri at Boston College+1.0L34–4158.5L34–41ON
Sat 10/2Missouri vs Tennessee-2.5L24–6266.5L24–62ON
Sat 10/9Missouri vs North Texas-18.5W48–3569.0W48–35ON
Sat 10/16Missouri vs Texas A&M+11.5L14–3559.0L14–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Missouri at Vanderbilt-16.0W37–2862.5W37–28ON
Sat 11/6Missouri at Georgia+40.0L6–4359.0L6–43UY
Sat 11/13Missouri vs South Carolina-1.0W31–2856.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/20Missouri vs Florida+9.5W24–2369.0W24–23UY
Fri 11/26Missouri at Arkansas+14.5L17–3463.0L17–34UN
Wed 12/22Missouri vs Army+7.0L22–2454.0L22–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
South Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
South Carolina
+0.474
Missouri
+0.406
South Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina
+0.742
Missouri
+0.473
South Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
South Carolina
0.177
Missouri
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
South Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
South Carolina
+7.801
Missouri
+7.265
South Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
South Carolina
+0.848
Missouri
+0.876
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
South Carolina
70.4
Missouri
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
South Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
South Carolina
5.3
Missouri
12.2
Offense Rating
South Carolina
18.3
Missouri
20.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
South Carolina
13.0
Missouri
8.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
South Carolina #70
0.78
Missouri #97
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #95
1.00
Missouri #127
1.78
Missouri +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
South Carolina #1
34.9
Missouri #1
44.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
South Carolina #101
57.0
Missouri #87
46.9
Missouri +9.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Missouri
48.5 — 24.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Missouri won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Marcus Satterfield Yr 1 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Eliah Drinkwitz Yr 1 #1
DC Steve Wilks Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself