Sat, Nov 6 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Florida✈ 308 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Florida wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida -20.5
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida 2021 Schedule
Florida's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -23.5W35–14 | 51.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida at South Florida | -29.0W42–20 | 57.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida vs Alabama | +14.0L29–31 | 59.5 | L29–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida vs Tennessee | -19.0W38–14 | 65.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida at Kentucky | -7.5L13–20 | 56.5 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -39.0W42–0 | 60.5 | W42–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Florida at LSU | -12.5L42–49 | 61.0 | L42–49 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L7–34 | 50.0 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida at South Carolina | -20.5L17–40 | 52.0 | L17–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida vs Samford | -36.0W70–52 | 68.5 | W70–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida at Missouri | -9.5L23–24 | 69.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida vs Florida State | -4.0W24–21 | 58.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Florida vs UCF | -7.0L17–29 | 56.0 | L17–29 | U | N |
South Carolina 2021 Schedule
South Carolina's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Carolina vs Eastern Illinois | -31.5W46–0 | 55.5 | W46–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Carolina at East Carolina | -3.0W20–17 | 56.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Carolina at Georgia | +31.5L13–40 | 47.5 | L13–40 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | +4.5L10–16 | 49.0 | L10–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | South Carolina vs Troy | -6.5W23–14 | 43.0 | W23–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Carolina at Tennessee | +10.5L20–45 | 57.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | South Carolina vs Vanderbilt | -19.0W21–20 | 50.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | South Carolina at Texas A&M | +19.0L14–44 | 46.0 | L14–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | South Carolina vs Florida | +20.5W40–17 | 52.0 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | South Carolina at Missouri | +1.0L28–31 | 56.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Carolina vs Auburn | +7.0W21–17 | 45.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | South Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5L0–30 | 42.5 | L0–30 | U | N |
| Thu 12/30 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | +12.5W38–21 | 57.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +27.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Carolina
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
56.3 — 32.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 23
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida
Dan Mullen #1
31–10 (76%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Dan Mullen
Yr 1
#1
DC
Todd Grantham
Yr 1
#1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Marcus Satterfield
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clayton White
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓