Virginia at Pittsburgh Week 12 College Football Matchup Virginia at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
Virginia✈ 185 miSame TZ
Away
38 48
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
29
PITT -12.5
Pittsburgh
42
P&R Line Pittsburgh -13
P&R Total O/U 70
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -12.5 · O/U 69.0
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Pittsburgh wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -12.5
O/U 69.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Pittsburgh 2nd straight Home Game
Virginia 2021 Schedule
Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Virginia vs William & Mary-30.5W43–052.5W43–0UY
Sat 9/11Virginia vs Illinois-10.5W42–1457.0W42–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia at North Carolina+7.5L39–5967.0L39–59ON
Fri 9/24Virginia vs Wake Forest-3.5L17–3771.0L17–37UN
Thu 9/30Virginia at Miami+3.5W30–2863.5W30–28UY
Sat 10/9Virginia at Louisville+2.5W34–3369.5W34–33UY
Sat 10/16Virginia vs Duke-10.5W48–069.5W48–0UY
Sat 10/23Virginia vs Georgia Tech-6.5W48–4066.0W48–40OY
Sat 10/30Virginia at BYU+2.5L49–6666.5L49–66ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Virginia vs Notre Dame+7.5L3–2862.5L3–28UN
Sat 11/20Virginia at Pittsburgh+12.5L38–4869.0L38–48OY
Sat 11/27Virginia vs Virginia Tech-7.0L24–2963.5L24–29UN
Wed 12/29Virginia vs SMU-2.571.0
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia
+0.413
Pittsburgh
+0.632
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia
+0.550
Pittsburgh
+0.835
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia
0.143
Pittsburgh
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia
+8.052
Pittsburgh
+8.386
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia
+0.902
Pittsburgh
+0.946
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia
74.3
Pittsburgh
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #55
1.78
Pittsburgh #7
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #124
2.00
Pittsburgh #12
0.56
Pittsburgh +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
48.0
Pittsburgh #1
72.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #74
42.2
Pittsburgh #7
15.0
Pittsburgh +24.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
73.7 — 11.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Bronco Mendenhall #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Robert Anae Yr 1 #1
DC Kelly Poppinga Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself