Pittsburgh at Michigan State Week 1 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at Michigan State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 31 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA · Turf · 71,000 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 521 miSame TZ Michigan State✈ 620 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
21 31
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
32
Michigan State
26
P&R Line Pittsburgh -6.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan State -3.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -3.5
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Michigan State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Pittsburgh 3rd straight Road Game
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Michigan State 2021 Schedule
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Michigan State at Northwestern+3.0W38–2145.5W38–21OY
Sat 9/11Michigan State vs Youngstown State-28.5W42–1452.0W42–14ON
Sat 9/18Michigan State at Miami+7.0W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/25Michigan State vs Nebraska-3.5W23–2055.0W23–20UN
Sat 10/2Michigan State vs Western Kentucky-10.5W48–3166.5W48–31OY
Sat 10/9Michigan State at Rutgers-4.5W31–1350.0W31–13UY
Sat 10/16Michigan State at Indiana-3.5W20–1548.5W20–15UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Michigan State vs Michigan+4.0W37–3350.5W37–33OY
Sat 11/6Michigan State at Purdue-2.5L29–4053.0L29–40ON
Sat 11/13Michigan State vs Maryland-11.5W40–2160.0W40–21OY
Sat 11/20Michigan State at Ohio State+19.5L7–5670.5L7–56UN
Sat 11/27Michigan State vs Penn State+3.5W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Thu 12/30Michigan State vs Pittsburgh-3.5W31–2155.0W31–21UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.487
Michigan State
+0.359
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.674
Michigan State
+0.550
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
0.199
Michigan State
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+8.014
Michigan State
+7.500
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.916
Michigan State
+0.832
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
69.9
Michigan State
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
Michigan State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #7
1.92
Michigan State #78
0.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #12
0.50
Michigan State #100
1.27
Pittsburgh +1.37
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
71.8
Michigan State #1
54.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #7
14.7
Michigan State #44
31.3
Pittsburgh +17.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
37.5 — 45.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
5–5 (50%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself