Sat, Sep 4 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
Massachusetts✈ 409 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -38
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2021 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Massachusetts at Pittsburgh | +38.0L7–51 | 56.0 | L7–51 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Massachusetts vs Boston College | +39.0L28–45 | 57.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | +22.0L28–42 | 56.5 | L28–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina | +36.0L3–53 | 66.0 | L3–53 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Massachusetts vs Toledo | +26.5L7–45 | 56.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +3.0W27–13 | 57.0 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Massachusetts at Florida State | +35.0L3–59 | 59.0 | L3–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Massachusetts at Liberty | +35.5L17–62 | 56.0 | L17–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Massachusetts vs Rhode Island | -2.5L22–35 | 55.5 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Massachusetts vs Maine | +6.0L10–35 | 58.5 | L10–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Massachusetts at Army | +37.5L17–33 | 56.0 | L17–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Massachusetts at New Mexico State | +7.0L27–44 | 58.5 | L27–44 | O | N |
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts | -38.0W51–7 | 56.0 | W51–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Pittsburgh at Tennessee | -3.5W41–34 | 56.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan | -14.0L41–44 | 59.0 | L41–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire | -29.0W77–7 | 53.0 | W77–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | -3.0W52–21 | 57.5 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech | -6.0W28–7 | 55.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Pittsburgh vs Clemson | -3.5W27–17 | 47.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Pittsburgh vs Miami | -9.5L34–38 | 61.0 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Pittsburgh at Duke | -21.0W54–29 | 64.5 | W54–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | Pittsburgh vs North Carolina | -6.5W30–23 | 72.0 | W30–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia | -12.5W48–38 | 69.0 | W48–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | -12.0W31–14 | 58.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest | -3.5W45–21 | 72.5 | W45–21 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Pittsburgh vs Michigan State | +3.5L21–31 | 55.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Massachusetts Edge
Massachusetts +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Massachusetts Edge
Massachusetts +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
95.5 — 0.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 44
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Walt Bell #1
1–18 (5%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Angelo Mirando
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tommy Restivo
Yr 1
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Mark Whipple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓