Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh, PA
·
Turf
·
68,400 cap
Clemson✈ 427 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -3.5
O/U 47.0
consensus
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Pittsburgh
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Clemson 2021 Schedule
Clemson's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Clemson vs Georgia | -3.0L3–10 | 51.5 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Clemson vs South Carolina State | -50.5W49–3 | 56.0 | W49–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | -27.5W14–8 | 52.5 | W14–8 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Clemson at NC State | -10.5L21–27 | 46.5 | L21–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Clemson vs Boston College | -14.5W19–13 | 46.5 | W19–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Clemson at Syracuse | -12.5W17–14 | 44.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Clemson at Pittsburgh | +3.5L17–27 | 47.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Clemson vs Florida State | -9.5W30–20 | 47.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Clemson at Louisville | -3.5W30–24 | 46.0 | W30–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Clemson vs UConn | -40.5W44–7 | 50.5 | W44–7 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Clemson vs Wake Forest | -3.5W48–27 | 57.0 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Clemson at South Carolina | -11.5W30–0 | 42.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Clemson vs Iowa State | -1.5W20–13 | 44.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts | -38.0W51–7 | 56.0 | W51–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Pittsburgh at Tennessee | -3.5W41–34 | 56.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan | -14.0L41–44 | 59.0 | L41–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire | -29.0W77–7 | 53.0 | W77–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | -3.0W52–21 | 57.5 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech | -6.0W28–7 | 55.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Pittsburgh vs Clemson | -3.5W27–17 | 47.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Pittsburgh vs Miami | -9.5L34–38 | 61.0 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Pittsburgh at Duke | -21.0W54–29 | 64.5 | W54–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/11 | Pittsburgh vs North Carolina | -6.5W30–23 | 72.0 | W30–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia | -12.5W48–38 | 69.0 | W48–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | -12.0W31–14 | 58.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest | -3.5W45–21 | 72.5 | W45–21 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Pittsburgh vs Michigan State | +3.5L21–31 | 55.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
51.0 — 23.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Pittsburgh won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
141–35 (80%)
· Yr 14 at school
OC
Tony Elliott
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brent Venables
Yr 1
#1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Mark Whipple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓