Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech Week 7 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 224 miSame TZ
28 7
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
34
Virginia Tech
22
P&R Line Pittsburgh -12.5
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -6 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -6
O/U 55.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Virginia Tech 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 Pittsburgh Coming off BYE
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Virginia Tech 2021 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Virginia Tech vs North Carolina+5.5W17–1063.5W17–10UY
Sat 9/11Virginia Tech vs Middle Tennessee-20.0W35–1455.0W35–14UY
Sat 9/18Virginia Tech at West Virginia+2.0L21–2749.5L21–27UN
Sat 9/25Virginia Tech vs Richmond-29.0W21–1050.0W21–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9Virginia Tech vs Notre Dame-1.0L29–3246.5L29–32ON
Sat 10/16Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh+6.0L7–2855.5L7–28UN
Sat 10/23Virginia Tech vs Syracuse-3.5L36–4145.5L36–41ON
Sat 10/30Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech+3.0W26–1755.0W26–17UY
Fri 11/5Virginia Tech at Boston College-1.0L3–1751.0L3–17UN
Sat 11/13Virginia Tech vs Duke-13.5W48–1750.5W48–17OY
Sat 11/20Virginia Tech at Miami+7.0L26–3855.5L26–38ON
Sat 11/27Virginia Tech at Virginia+7.0W29–2463.5W29–24UY
Wed 12/29Virginia Tech vs Maryland+4.0L10–5455.0L10–54ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.528
Virginia Tech
+0.269
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.645
Virginia Tech
+0.440
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
0.199
Virginia Tech
0.174
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+8.480
Virginia Tech
+6.991
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.896
Virginia Tech
+0.809
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
69.9
Virginia Tech
71.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #7
1.75
Virginia Tech #111
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #12
0.75
Virginia Tech #66
1.00
Pittsburgh +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
77.7
Virginia Tech #1
63.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #7
11.9
Virginia Tech #75
25.3
Pittsburgh +14.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Justin Fuente #1
40–27 (60%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 1 #1
DC Justin Hamilton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself