Western Michigan at Pittsburgh Week 3 College Football Matchup Western Michigan at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 18 2021 · Week 3 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
Western Michigan✈ 316 miSame TZ
44 41
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Michigan
21
PITT -14
Pittsburgh
40
P&R Line Pittsburgh -19.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Pittsburgh -14 · O/U 59.0
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Pittsburgh wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Pittsburgh wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -14
O/U 59.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2021 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Western Michigan at Michigan+16.5L14–4765.5L14–47UN
Sat 9/11Western Michigan vs Illinois State-12.5W28–056.5W28–0UY
Sat 9/18Western Michigan at Pittsburgh+14.0W44–4159.0W44–41OY
Sat 9/25Western Michigan vs San José State-2.5W23–361.5W23–3UY
Sat 10/2Western Michigan at Buffalo-7.0W24–1759.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9Western Michigan vs Ball State-13.0L20–4557.5L20–45ON
Sat 10/16Western Michigan vs Kent State-7.0W64–3168.5W64–31OY
Sat 10/23Western Michigan at Toledo-1.5L15–3454.5L15–34UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-9.0L30–4264.5L30–42ON
Tue 11/9Western Michigan vs Akron-24.5W45–4062.0W45–40ON
Tue 11/16Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-6.0L21–2266.0L21–22UN
Tue 11/23Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-6.5W42–2160.0W42–21OY
Mon 12/27Western Michigan vs Nevada-7.0W52–2456.0W52–24OY
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Michigan
+0.401
Pittsburgh
+0.513
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan
+0.566
Pittsburgh
+0.626
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Michigan
0.219
Pittsburgh
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Michigan
+7.883
Pittsburgh
+8.309
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Michigan
+0.898
Pittsburgh
+0.865
Western Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Michigan
71.8
Pittsburgh
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Michigan
-5.6
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
Western Michigan
14.5
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Michigan
20.1
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Michigan #12
0.00
Pittsburgh #7
2.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #73
3.00
Pittsburgh #12
0.00
Pittsburgh +2.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Michigan #1
49.0
Pittsburgh #1
77.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Michigan #28
49.3
Pittsburgh #7
11.3
Pittsburgh +28.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Michigan
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Pittsburgh
42.3 — 33.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Michigan won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Tim Lester #1
26–21 (55%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Bath Yr 1 #1
DC Lou Esposito Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself