Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Week 5 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 2 2021 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field Atlanta, GA · Turf · 55,000 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 520 miSame TZ
52 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
41
Georgia Tech
19
P&R Line Pittsburgh -22
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -3 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -3
O/U 57.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Georgia Tech 2nd straight Home Game
Pittsburgh 2021 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts-38.0W51–756.0W51–7OY
Sat 9/11Pittsburgh at Tennessee-3.5W41–3456.0W41–34OY
Sat 9/18Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan-14.0L41–4459.0L41–44ON
Sat 9/25Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire-29.0W77–753.0W77–7OY
Sat 10/2Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech-3.0W52–2157.5W52–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-6.0W28–755.5W28–7UY
Sat 10/23Pittsburgh vs Clemson-3.5W27–1747.0W27–17UY
Sat 10/30Pittsburgh vs Miami-9.5L34–3861.0L34–38ON
Sat 11/6Pittsburgh at Duke-21.0W54–2964.5W54–29OY
Thu 11/11Pittsburgh vs North Carolina-6.5W30–2372.0W30–23UY
Sat 11/20Pittsburgh vs Virginia-12.5W48–3869.0W48–38ON
Sat 11/27Pittsburgh at Syracuse-12.0W31–1458.5W31–14UY
Sat 12/4Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest-3.5W45–2172.5W45–21UY
Thu 12/30Pittsburgh vs Michigan State+3.5L21–3155.0L21–31UN
Georgia Tech 2021 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Georgia Tech vs Northern Illinois-19.0L21–2257.0L21–22UN
Sat 9/11Georgia Tech vs Kennesaw State-20.0W45–1753.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/18Georgia Tech at Clemson+27.5L8–1452.5L8–14UY
Sat 9/25Georgia Tech vs North Carolina+14.5W45–2266.0W45–22OY
Sat 10/2Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh+3.0L21–5257.5L21–52ON
Sat 10/9Georgia Tech at Duke-4.5W31–2760.5W31–27UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Georgia Tech at Virginia+6.5L40–4866.0L40–48ON
Sat 10/30Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-3.0L17–2655.0L17–26UN
Sat 11/6Georgia Tech at Miami+10.0L30–3363.0L30–33UY
Sat 11/13Georgia Tech vs Boston College+2.0L30–4155.0L30–41ON
Sat 11/20Georgia Tech at Notre Dame+18.0L0–5557.5L0–55UN
Sat 11/27Georgia Tech vs Georgia+35.5L0–4554.5L0–45UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.612
Georgia Tech
+0.245
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+1.000
Georgia Tech
+0.355
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
0.199
Georgia Tech
0.140
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh
+8.814
Georgia Tech
+6.960
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
+0.958
Georgia Tech
+0.806
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh
69.9
Georgia Tech
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Pittsburgh Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
Georgia Tech
1.1
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
Georgia Tech
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
Georgia Tech
13.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #7
2.00
Georgia Tech #94
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #12
1.00
Georgia Tech #136
0.25
Pittsburgh +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
74.2
Georgia Tech #1
44.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #7
14.0
Georgia Tech #107
43.4
Pittsburgh +29.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
44–35 (56%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Mark Whipple Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Georgia Tech
Geoff Collins #1
7–18 (28%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Dave Patenaude Yr 1 #1
DC Nathan Burton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself