North Dakota State at Sacramento State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State Hornets

Sacramento State logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Hornet Stadium - Sacramento, CA

 
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
NDSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: North Dakota State -2.5  (SP+ -0)
Projected Score: NDSU: 11 - SAC: 8 (19)
NDSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NDSU Travel: 1369 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 @ Home)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/12Sacramento State at Fresno State+7.5————
Sat 9/19Sacramento State vs North Dakota State+2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28Sacramento State at Hawai'i+7————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
SAC0%170%000%000%200%0%0000
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SAC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
SAC Defense120200%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
SAC Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
Sacramento State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
SAC Offense10%0%000000%0%0

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
SAC Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0

North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: -1.46  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: -1.46   Sacramento State: -3.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State:    Sacramento State:




Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -3.1  #115
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: -1.11  #138
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 15.09  #64
2026 Talent Rating: 546.00  #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: -
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 546.62
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense on Road: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Dakota State 11
Sacramento State 8

Projected Total Points: 19
Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sacramento State000 Overs
North Dakota State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#80) NDSU at (#115) SAC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDSUSAC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #115
SP+SP+NRNR
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #135 #111
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #88
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
Sacramento State Notes
(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSAC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #98 #64
SP+SP+NRNR
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSAC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffSAC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Sacramento State on Offense
CategoryCatSAC OffNDSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #138 #62
SP+SP+NRNR
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Sacramento State Run Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Sacramento State Pass Game
CategoryCatSAC OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hornet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Savion Red11100%280028.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davion Godley (Tr)9451245.452
Sam Adams II3618135.034
Savion Red125804.813
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)51903.88
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Williams11170115.526
Sam Adams II9134214.933
Matthew Coleman (Tr)2013116.613
Jace Wilson356018.745

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Deven Wright51000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Deven Wright51000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000