Northern Illinois at North Dakota State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo

Northern Illinois Huskies at North Dakota State Bison

North Dakota State logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Fargodome - Fargo, ND  (Mountain West)

 
Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rob Harley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
NIU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: North Dakota State -17.5  (SP+ NIU -16.5)
Projected Score: NIU: 2 - NDSU: 20 (22)
NDSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
NIU Travel: 524 miles
Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Northern Illinois's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Northern Illinois at Iowa+35————
Sat 9/12Northern Illinois vs Illinois State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Northern Illinois at Arizona+27.5————
Sat 9/26Northern Illinois at Georgia State-0————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Northern Illinois vs Air Force+6————
Sat 10/17Northern Illinois at Wyoming+9.5————
Sat 10/24Northern Illinois vs Hawai'i+12————
Sat 10/31Northern Illinois at UNLV+20.5————
Sat 11/7Northern Illinois at San José State+3————
Sat 11/14Northern Illinois vs Nevada-3————
Sat 11/21Northern Illinois at North Dakota State+17.5————
Sat 11/28Northern Illinois vs UTEP-1.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State-8————
Sat 9/5North Dakota State vs Fordham-23————
Sat 9/12North Dakota State at Air Force-4.5————
Sat 9/19North Dakota State at Sacramento State-2.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Dakota State vs Wyoming-10.5————
Sat 10/10North Dakota State at UNLV+5.5————
Sat 10/17North Dakota State vs Nevada-18————
Sat 10/24North Dakota State at New Mexico+3.5————
Sat 10/31North Dakota State vs UTEP-16.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14North Dakota State at Hawai'i+2————
Sat 11/21North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois-17.5————
Sat 11/28North Dakota State at San José State-12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#126 (.04)34% (132)17.138% (116)2.84 (84)18628% (136)993.04 (121)#86 (.19)44% (100)24.346% (111)41% (65)3.45 (49)380.91.1
NDSU0%00%000%000%00%0%0000
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1217.116.334.5%3.040.915284186994.565%34%38%28%13%.04
NDSU Defense0000%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1224.327.844.1%3.451.1 - - - - - 58%40%46%41%11%.19
NDSU Offense0000%00000000%0%0%0%0%

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1229:131532%59%4.3380.91.13.31.2127.3
North Dakota State00:000NAN%0%0000000100
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1265% (6)38% (116)41.4185.64.516 (122).11 (73)2.84 (84)69% (85)10% (87)1.11 (15)
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - 00%0%0
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1258% (132)46% (111) - - - - .17 (107)3.18 (117)72% (78)7% (134)0.95 (62)
NDSU Offense00%0%000000%0%0

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1234% (131)28% (136)10.820.398.84.99.28 (128)6 (60) (134)1.6 (32)34% (116)23% (132).13 (127)3% (4)2.1 (46)
NDSU Defense00%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1240% (5)41% (65) - - - - - - 9 (55).19 (45)1.5 (55)28% (120)36% (130).5 (134)5% (114)2.1 (108)
NDSU Offense00%0%000000000%0%0%0

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -14.82  #130
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 2.73  #128
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 22.55  #121
2026 Talent Rating: 564.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Northern Illinois's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Northern Illinois's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7  #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0  #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #74

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -14.82   North Dakota State: 1.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -16.7   North Dakota State:




North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: 1.77  #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15  #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00  #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Dakota State 20
Northern Illinois 2

Projected Total Points: 22
North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense at Home: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense at Home: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Dakota State000 Overs
Northern Illinois000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#130) NIU at (#80) NDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNIUNDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #130 #80
SP+SP+ #128NR
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #102 #135
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
Northern Illinois Notes
(3/3) Vibes: HC left, only 2 portals? Moved to MWC?
(3/3) QB Holst is back, but there's nothing good here
(3/3) RBs Wright & Johnson productive duo, have depth
(3/3) WR unit may be worst in CFB on paper.
(3/3) OL has 1.5 starters back, have bodies, very young
(3/3) F7 lacks experience, size, production
(3/3) DBs have exp and some depth.
(3/3) Program is flailing and lost. Rather depressing
(2/18) DC Rob Harley Int HC, Hammock left for NFL.
Northern Illinois Injury Report
North Dakota State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffNDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #132NR
ExplosiveExp #57NR
PPAPPA #126NR
PowerPwr #128 #62
SP+SP+ #135NR
Pts POPPO #121NR
HavocHav #29NR
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffNDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #116NR
Run ExplRExp #15NR
PPAExp #73NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #84NR
Stuff RateStuff #60NR
TackleTak - NR
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffNDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #136NR
Pass ExplPExl #32NR
PPAExp #134NR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87NR
DB HavocDB #4NR
North Dakota State on Offense
CategoryCatNDSU OffNIU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #100
ExplosiveExpNR #40
PPAPPANR #86
PowerPwr #98 #121
SP+SP+NR #74
Pts POPPONR #49
HavocHavNR #132
North Dakota State Run Game
CategoryCat
NDSU OffNIU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #111
Run ExplRExpNR #62
PPAExpNR #107
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #117
Stuff RateStuffNR #119
TackleTak - NR
North Dakota State Pass Game
CategoryCatNDSU OffNIU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #65
Pass ExplPExlNR #55
PPAExpNR #45
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #134
DB HavocDBNR #114
Program Comparison
NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Fargodome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
NIU's OC Quinn Sanders (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7813060%689435.3
Brady Davidson408746%384334.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chavon Wright19687554.545
Telly Johnson Jr.12469045.680
Jalen Macon4521654.836
Lazaro Rogers3318915.776
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rickey Taylor Jr.9134114.941
Telly Johnson Jr.169706.117
Elijah Porter167167.067
George Dimopoulos115805.319

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mark Hensley315110
Donte Harrison302005
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
James Finley150002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
Mark Hensley315110
Landon Tate30000
Malik Armstrong10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donte Harrison302005
Dev'ion Reynolds130003
James Finley150002

NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nathan Hayes254457%381418.7
Trey Drake11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Scott9550265.339
Cortez LeGrant2513105.222
Nathan Hayes788112.634
Myles Mitchell187814.321
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Reis Kessel15335122.350
Jackson Williams17293117.251
Mekhi Collins6159226.568
Isiah St. Romain450112.515

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD