North Dakota State at UNLV - 2026 Matchup Preview

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels

Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Allegiant Stadium - Las Vegas, NV (Mountain West)

Bison (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tim Polasek (26 - 3)
Avg Score : 0 - 0 (0 - 0 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

UNLV 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: UNLV -5.5 (SP+ UNLV -4)
Projected Score: NDSU: 13 - UNLV: 19 (32)
UNLV Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
NDSU Travel: 1352 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Rebels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#26)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 9)

Matchup
Schedules
NDSU Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Dakota State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State	-8	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	North Dakota State vs Fordham	-23	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	North Dakota State at Air Force	-4.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	North Dakota State at Sacramento State	-2.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3	North Dakota State vs Wyoming	-10.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	North Dakota State at UNLV	+5.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	North Dakota State vs Nevada	-18	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	North Dakota State at New Mexico	+3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/31	North Dakota State vs UTEP	-16.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14	North Dakota State at Hawai'i	+2	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	North Dakota State vs Northern Illinois	-17.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	North Dakota State at San José State	-12	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Dakota State's Schedule

UNLV's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	UNLV vs Memphis	+0.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	UNLV at Hawai'i	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	UNLV at North Texas	+5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	UNLV at Akron	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	UNLV vs California	-1.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	UNLV vs North Dakota State	-5.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	UNLV at Air Force	-7	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31	UNLV vs Northern Illinois	-20.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/7	UNLV vs Wyoming	-13.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	UNLV at New Mexico	+0.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	UNLV at San José State	-14.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	UNLV vs Nevada	-20.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UNLV's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NDSU		0%	0	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	0	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV	#15 (.3)	47% (19)	34.1	48% (19)	3.19 (21)	196	46% (26)	251	4.45 (18)	#107 (.21)	44% (103)	28	45% (102)	43% (95)	3.78 (78)	66.2	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NDSU Offense	0	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.7	44.3%	3.78	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	50%	45%	43%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NDSU Defense	0	0	0	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	36.8	46.8%	4.45	1.2	23	447	196	251	5.6	49%	49%	48%	46%	16%	.3

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Dakota State	0	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
UNLV	14	30:42	23.1	45%	58%	7.6	66.2	1.2	1.7	4.7	2.1	5	28.2

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NDSU Offense	0	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
UNLV Defense	14	47% (39)	45% (102)	-	-	-	-	.23 (130)	3.15 (112)	62% (14)	9% (103)	1.11 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NDSU Defense	0	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
UNLV Offense	14	49% (71)	48% (19)	35.3	195.9	5.6	33 (30)	.26 (8)	3.19 (21)	71% (76)	10% (103)	1.09 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NDSU Offense	0	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNLV Defense	14	50% (93)	43% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (6)	.25 (70)	1.6 (69)	31% (73)	31% (88)	.2 (27)	6% (52)	1.9 (28)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NDSU Defense	0	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNLV Offense	14	49% (67)	46% (26)	19.9	30.3	250.9	8.3	12.6	24 (42)	9 (34)	.37 (33)	1.6 (51)	30% (52)	36% (18)	.47 (15)	6% (51)	2.1 (54)

North Dakota State's Power Ratings
North Dakota State's Power Rating: -1.46 #80
North Dakota State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #98
North Dakota State's Defense Rating: 14.61 #62
2026 Talent Rating: 190.00 #135
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #103
North Dakota State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
North Dakota State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
North Dakota State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.22
Average FBS Talent: 728.45

Power Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: -1.46 UNLV: 4.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Dakota State: UNLV: 4.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 4.56 #77
UNLV's Offense Rating: 15.80 #44
UNLV's Defense Rating: 20.98 #108
2026 Talent Rating: 622.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #103
UNLV's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
UNLV's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #57
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.8 #25
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #89

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.22
Average FBS Talent: 728.45

North Dakota State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 0 PPG
Defense on Road: 0

North Dakota State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 19
North Dakota State 13

Projected Total Points: 32

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	0	0	0 Overs
North Dakota State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#80) NDSU at (#77) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NDSU	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#80	#77
SP+SP+	NR	#57
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#135	#92
Blue ChipsBC%	#103	#103

North Dakota State Notes(2/14) Vibes: High, looking to dominate MWC in 1st yr
(2/14) Really good program, possibly fav to win MWC
(2/14) OL good, returns 3 starters + 2 more w good exp
(2/9) QB1 lost starter, N Hayes some exp, very mobile
(2/9) RB Scott (500 yds, #2 LY) back, have depth here
(2/9) WR lost #1 & 2, have some exp + good TE
(2/9) DT K Wilson & LB D Woolen both FCS A.A. LY
(2/9) FCS Def stats N/A, will need to sort out
(2/8) 1st year in FBS & MWC. Stats are limited
North Dakota State Injury Report

UNLV Notes(3/3) Vibes: Mullen could run new MWC w/ resources
(3/3) QB Jackson Arnold (Aub) in, still have A. Orji
(3/3) RB Jai'Den Thomas one of G6 best, good depth
(3/3) WR rebuild, 3 portals, have some talent, lack exp
(3/3) OL 3 starters, 4 portal adds, should be good
(3/3) DL looks really suspect but only took 1 portal?
(3/3) DBs by far most exp'd, 4 decent starters w depth
UNLV Injury Report

North Dakota State on Offense


CategoryCat	NDSU Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#103
ExplosiveExp	NR	#112
PPAPPA	NR	#107
PowerPwr	#98	#108
SP+SP+	NR	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	#78
HavocHav	NR	#86

North Dakota State Run Game


CategoryCat	NDSU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#102
Run ExplRExp	NR	#127
PPAExp	NR	#130
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#112
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#102
TackleTak	-	NR

North Dakota State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NDSU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#95
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#69
PPAExp	NR	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#103
DB HavocDB	NR	#52

UNLV on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#19	NR
ExplosiveExp	#25	NR
PPAPPA	#15	NR
PowerPwr	#44	#62
SP+SP+	#25	NR
Pts POPPO	#18	NR
HavocHav	#80	NR

UNLV Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#19	NR
Run ExplRExp	#22	NR
PPAExp	#8	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#21	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#64	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

UNLV Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#26	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#51	NR
PPAExp	#33	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#103	NR
DB HavocDB	#51	NR

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NDSU's OC Dan Larson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nathan Hayes	25	44	57%	381	4	1	8.7
Trey Drake	1	1	100%	4	0	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Scott	95	502	6	5.3	39
Cortez LeGrant	25	131	0	5.2	22
Nathan Hayes	7	88	1	12.6	34
Myles Mitchell	18	78	1	4.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reis Kessel	15	335	1	22.3	50
Jackson Williams	17	293	1	17.2	51
Mekhi Collins	6	159	2	26.5	68
Isiah St. Romain	4	50	1	12.5	15

View North Dakota State's Full Roster

NDSU's DC Grant Olson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNLV's OC Corey Dennis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	136	215	63%	1309	6	2	6.1
Alex Orji	3	3	100%	37	0	0	12.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	148	1034	12	7.0	70
Jaylon Glover	64	384	1	6.0	43
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	112	311	8	2.8	56
Kayden McGee	7	56	1	8.0	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tastean Reddicks	30	391	0	13.0	37
Taeshaun Lyons	15	234	3	15.6	72
Jai'Den Thomas	38	233	1	6.1	27
Amorion Walker (Tr)	15	201	1	13.4	41

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Paul Guenther (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jake Pope	80	3	2	1	3
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu	61	5	0	1	1
Landyn Cleveland (Tr)	33	2	0	1	2
Tre Fulton	33	1	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lucas Conti	22	4	3	1	0
Jake Pope	80	3	2	1	3
Elias Rudolph	10	2	2	0	0
Mark Iheanachor (Tr)	4	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quandarius Keyes	14	1	0	0	6
Tre Fulton	33	1	0	1	4
Jake Pope	80	3	2	1	3