San Diego State at Toledo - 2026 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH

Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 3.7 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 6)

TOL coming off BYE
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -3 (SP+ SDSU -0.5)
Projected Score: SDSU: 21 - TOL: 24 (45)
TOL Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 1929 miles, 3 hrs behind

Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#80)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	San Diego State vs Portland State	-24
Sat 9/12	San Diego State at UCLA	+4
Sat 9/19	San Diego State vs James Madison	-1
Sat 9/26	San Diego State at Toledo	+3
Sat 10/3	San Diego State vs Texas State	-3
Sat 10/10	San Diego State at Oregon State	-13
Sat 10/17	San Diego State vs Fresno State	-7
Sat 10/24	San Diego State at Colorado State	-11
Sat 10/31	San Diego State vs Washington State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	San Diego State vs Utah State	-10.5
Fri 11/20	San Diego State at Boise State	+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Toledo's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Toledo at Michigan State	+1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	Toledo vs San Diego State	-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#93 (.13)	42% (76)	26.4	46% (40)	3.34 (10)	199	36% (121)	158	3.51 (90)	#4 (-.01)	35% (10)	15.4	38% (24)	33% (4)	2.42 (3)	55.9	1.2	1.4
TOL	#63 (.18)	44% (53)	30.8	43% (70)	2.91 (73)	178	44% (40)	238	3.86 (55)	#2 (-.07)	33% (4)	13.3	39% (29)	28% (1)	2.45 (4)	74.6	1.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	13	26.4	18.2	41.8%	3.51	1.2	18	356	199	158	4.8	61%	37%	46%	36%	13%	.13
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	33.3%	2.45	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	45%	39%	28%	20%	-.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	13	15.4	18.3	35.1%	2.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	33%	15%	-.01
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	43.6%	3.86	1.2	21	416	178	238	4.9	49%	49%	43%	44%	13%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	13	30:17	17.9	31%	52%	6.2	55.9	1.2	1.4	4.8	2.5	5	31.7
Toledo	13	30:26	21.2	40%	24%	8.5	74.6	1.2	1.6	7.1	2.8	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	13	61% (9)	46% (40)	41.8	198.9	4.8	25 (70)	.17 (43)	3.34 (10)	80% (16)	7% (22)	0.9 (94)
TOL Defense	13	52% (98)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (13)	2.36 (7)	67% (39)	13% (7)	0.87 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	13	48% (46)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	.06 (43)	3.04 (99)	63% (15)	8% (113)	0.96 (70)
TOL Offense	13	49% (69)	43% (70)	36.2	177.7	4.9	22 (40)	.12 (64)	2.91 (73)	78% (27)	9% (53)	0.9 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	13	37% (128)	36% (121)	12.8	22.3	157.9	7.1	12.4	10 (106)	10 (7)	.09 (127)	1.7 (20)	30% (41)	20% (136)	.04 (132)	6% (48)	1.9 (88)
TOL Defense	13	45% (30)	28% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (55)	-.08 (1)	1.6 (108)	35% (22)	19% (1)	-.01 (1)	7% (15)	2.2 (124)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	13	50% (90)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (55)	-.04 (2)	1.4 (16)	35% (17)	23% (6)	.06 (3)	7% (22)	1.8 (14)
TOL Offense	13	49% (66)	44% (40)	19.7	30.7	238.1	7.8	12.1	27 (22)	10 (60)	.28 (55)	1.6 (62)	32% (71)	29% (79)	.2 (112)	4% (11)	1.9 (115)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -5.94 #84
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 5.01 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.95 #63
2026 Talent Rating: 552.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 3.7
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7 #43
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -5.94 Toledo: 3.31

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7 Toledo: 6.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 3.31 #77
Toledo's Offense Rating: 4.44 #111
Toledo's Defense Rating: 13.82 #47
2026 Talent Rating: 552.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #66
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 530.15
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 24
San Diego State 21

Projected Total Points: 45

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/24	San Diego State	17	Toledo	14	Toledo -2.5	San Diego State	44.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	0	0	0 Overs
San Diego State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#84) SDSU at (#77) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#77
SP+SP+	#43	#48
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#99	#99
Blue ChipsBC%	#99	#66

San Diego State Notes(2/2) Lewis era growing & SDSU is spending NIL $
San Diego State Injury Report

Toledo Notes(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#76	#4
ExplosiveExp	#112	#22
PPAPPA	#93	#2
PowerPwr	#106	#47
SP+SP+	#90	#21
Pts POPPO	#90	#4
HavocHav	#25	#5

San Diego State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#29
Run ExplRExp	#94	#22
PPAExp	#43	#13
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#10	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#27
TackleTak	-	NR

San Diego State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#108
PPAExp	#127	#1
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#22	#7
DB HavocDB	#48	#15

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#53	#10
ExplosiveExp	#76	#23
PPAPPA	#63	#4
PowerPwr	#111	#63
SP+SP+	#75	#28
Pts POPPO	#55	#3
HavocHav	#22	#78

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#24
Run ExplRExp	#95	#70
PPAExp	#64	#43
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#99
Stuff RateStuff	#86	#109
TackleTak	-	NR

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#16
PPAExp	#55	#2
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#53	#113
DB HavocDB	#11	#22

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Denegal	143	244	59%	1810	9	8	7.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.	9	16	56%	74	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lucky Sutton	253	1292	10	5.1	50
Christian Washington	97	560	4	5.8	41
Bert Emanuel Jr.	32	273	2	8.5	72
Jayden Denegal	67	103	4	1.5	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Napier	48	632	2	13.2	80
Javion Kinnard (Tr)	18	228	1	12.7	79
Nathan Acevedo	16	190	0	11.9	42
Jacob Bostick	11	157	3	14.3	35

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Tano Letuli	27	0	2	1
Malachi Finau	18	1	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)	5	1	1	1	1
Kai Wallin (Tr)	17	2	1	4	1
Solomon Davis (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Malik Gucake	10	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dalesean Staley	70	1	0	8
Brady Nassar	14	0	4	3
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)	86	7	2	1

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Alan Richter	17	25	68%	153	3	1	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Miller (Tr)	168	953	14	5.7	79
Connor Walendzak	32	99	0	3.1	11
Michael Drennen II	9	60	0	6.7	15
Dane Nauman	9	40	0	4.4	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)	45	856	8	19.0	84
CJ Miller (Tr)	26	314	3	12.1	59
Peyton Strickland	24	226	4	9.4	65
Terrell Crosby Jr.	16	194	1	12.1	24

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Long	33	5	0	0	0
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0
Dylan Hohler	7	1	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Prince	5	3	1	0	0
Nicholas Thompson	24	2	1	0	0
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)	28	3	1	2	1
Langston Long	33	5	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Donovan Watkins (Tr)	2	0	0	1
Dylan Hohler	7	1	1	1
KJ Thomas (Tr)	3	0	0	1