LSU at Kentucky - 2026 Matchup Preview
LSU logo

LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#22)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
UK is playing their 6th straight game
LSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: LSU -12.5  (SP+ LSU -8.5)
Projected Score: LSU: 29 - UK: 17 (46)
LSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
LSU Travel: 649 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Will Stein (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
LSU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 LSU vs Clemson-10
Sat 9/12 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-27
Sat 9/19 LSU at Ole Miss+6
Sat 9/26 LSU vs Texas A&M+2.5
Sat 10/3 LSU vs McNeese-42.5
Sat 10/10 LSU at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 10/17 LSU vs Mississippi State-17
Sat 10/24 LSU at Auburn-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 LSU vs Alabama-2
Sat 11/14 LSU vs Texas+1
Sat 11/21 LSU at Tennessee+2
Sat 11/28 LSU at Arkansas-11.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Kentucky vs Youngstown State-27.5
Sat 9/12 Kentucky vs Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/19 Kentucky at Texas A&M+22.5
Sat 9/26 Kentucky vs South Alabama-19.5
Sat 10/3 Kentucky at South Carolina+7.5
Sat 10/10 Kentucky vs LSU+12.5
Sat 10/17 Kentucky at Oklahoma+21
Sat 10/24 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt+9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Kentucky at Tennessee+17
Sat 11/14 Kentucky vs Florida+3
Sat 11/21 Kentucky at Missouri+17
Sat 11/28 Kentucky vs Louisville+6.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#121 (.06)39% (108)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)10541% (84)2303.35 (104)#28 (.08)39% (30)19.839% (34)39% (44)3.25 (32)59.31.11.6
UK#115 (.08)42% (81)2345% (53)3.05 (51)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#85 (.18)44% (97)26.444% (84)45% (112)3.98 (99)411.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1322.816.438.9%3.351.1193341052303.742%56%37%41%18%.06
UK Defense1226.422.643.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1319.820.438.8%3.251.6 - - - - - 48%51%39%39%17%.08
UK Offense122331.741.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1330:1518.837%62%759.31.11.65.22.1229.8
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1342% (122)37% (122)28.6104.83.710 (107).01 (121)2.46 (132)64% (115)11% (116)0.92 (87)
UK Defense1252% (94)44% (84) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (44)10% (57)0.9 (41)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1348% (43)39% (34) - - - - .01 (18)2.59 (15)64% (18)9% (93)0.9 (40)
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (51)70% (84)11% (111)0.82 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1356% (14)41% (84)22.434.1229.56.710.320 (50)7 (60).18 (105)1.4 (109)36% (129)31% (69).23 (96)7% (99)1.9 (96)
UK Defense1246% (37)45% (112) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (64)30% (91)31% (85).31 (76)5% (110)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1351% (105)39% (44) - - - - - - 17 (22).18 (39)1.6 (71)34% (29)29% (60).22 (37)8% (11)1.9 (46)
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (62)26% (113).02 (134)7% (95)1.7 (131)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 27.52  #7
LSU's Offense Rating: 23.63  #14
LSU's Defense Rating: 0.18  #6
2026 Talent Rating: 1130.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #9
LSU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
LSU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #32
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 27.52   Kentucky: 6.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 10.3   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 6.47  #53
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 15.36  #49
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 14.22  #58
2026 Talent Rating: 836.00  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #25
Kentucky's 2026 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Kentucky's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
LSU 29
Kentucky 17

Projected Total Points: 46
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202110/09Kentucky42LSU21Kentucky -2Kentucky50.5Over
201410/18LSU41Kentucky3LSU -11LSU0
201110/01LSU35Kentucky7
200710/13Kentucky43LSU37
200610/14LSU49Kentucky0
200211/09Kentucky30LSU33
200110/13Kentucky25LSU29
200010/13LSU34Kentucky0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky211 Overs
LSU610 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 22 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams2 - 60 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#7) LSU at (#53) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUUK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #7 #53
SP+SP+ #32 #66
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #3 #50
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #25
LSU Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Eager, Kiffin era + roster upgrades.
(2/2) Great new staff w/ Kiffin, Weis & Baker still DC
(1/28) QB Leavitt has 6 proven WR weapons + great TE
(1/28) OL is portal mix of avg grades but good exp
(1/28) DL is talented, DE's good but DT ? production
(1/28) DBs have exp but not great, LBs really good
(1/28) RB Durham is back, 4 portal adds a mix of OK
(1/28) Portalled Off hard w 25 adds, Def 11, new roster
LSU Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Excited for Stein/Off. Big portal class
(3/3) 15 portals on offense will be tremendous boost
(2/2) New HC Stein fresh air, but OC/DC are ? hires
(2/2) QB Minchey is exciting. Could excel w/ Stein
(2/2) RBs have a lot of promise over prod. Could see it
(2/2) WR rebuild w 6 portals. Need some surprise hits
(2/2) OL mix of 2 really great adds with lots of projects
(2/2) DL parts to build, mix of 9 exp'd guys (5 adds)
(2/2) LBs need work. Lot of projecting success here
(2/2) DBs were awful LY. 6 portals, Bryant (S) good one
Kentucky Injury Report
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffUK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #108 #97
ExplosiveExp #91 #57
PPAPPA #121 #85
PowerPwr #14 #58
SP+SP+ #75 #48
Pts POPPO #104 #99
HavocHav #113 #93
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffUK Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #84
Run ExplRExp #87 #41
PPAExp #121 #63
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #132 #71
Stuff RateStuff #133 #53
TackleTak - NR
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffUK Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #112
Pass ExplPExl #109 #64
PPAExp #105 #99
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #116 #57
DB HavocDB #99 #110
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffLSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #81 #30
ExplosiveExp #128 #60
PPAPPA #115 #28
PowerPwr #49 #6
SP+SP+ #80 #11
Pts POPPO #57 #32
HavocHav #110 #40
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffLSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #34
Run ExplRExp #124 #40
PPAExp #98 #18
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #51 #15
Stuff RateStuff #51 #9
TackleTak - NR
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffLSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #44
Pass ExplPExl #59 #71
PPAExp #101 #39
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #93
DB HavocDB #95 #11
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
LSU's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Landen Clark (Tr)15527756%23211888.4
Sam Leavitt (Tr)14523961%16281036.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Holly16283095.180
Landen Clark (Tr)189614113.286
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Tre' Brown III (Tr)38762420.198
Jayce Brown (Tr)41712517.478
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield (Tr)1059013
TJ Dottery (Tr)986212
Davhon Keys894162
Tamarcus Cooley702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Stephiylan Green (Tr)183311
Dylan Carpenter93200
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
P.J. Woodland382128
Treylan James (Tr)25N/A1N/A6
Ty Benefield (Tr)1059013

UK's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kenny Minchey (Tr)202677%196007.5
JacQai Long (Tr)61833%31001.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jason Patterson5722513.929
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Kenny Minchey (Tr)784112.034
Jovantae Barnes (Tr)194512.410
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shane Carr (Tr)47655313.944
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Xavier Daisy (Tr)1817719.821
DJ Miller13175213.556

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Jordan Castell (Tr)540020
Grant Godfrey342110
Mi'Quise Grace317462
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mi'Quise Grace317462
Lorenzo Cowan135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Jamarrion Harkless (Tr)132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols181024
Grant Grayton160003
Mi'Quise Grace317462