Fresno State at Boise State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos

Saturday, December 3rd 2022 (4:00 PM EST)
Boise State -3 (54.5)
Fresno State 28 - Boise State: 16 (Mountain West Championship Game)

Bulldogs (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (26 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BSU 2nd straight Home Game
BSU is playing their 7th straight game
FRES is playing their 10th straight game
Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ BSU -2)
Projected Score: FRES: 25 - BSU: 29 (54)
BSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
FRES Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs behind

Broncos (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Andy Avalos (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-42.5	63.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-1.0	59.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at USC	+11.0	71.0	L 17 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UConn	-23.5	51.0	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Boise State	+9.0	45.0	L 20 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/15	Fresno State vs San José State	+7.0	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at New Mexico	-9.5	40.0	W 41 - 9	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-10.0	43.5	W 32 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/5	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-27.0	62.0	W 55 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/11	Fresno State at UNLV	-9.0	61.5	W 37 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/19	Fresno State at Nevada	-22.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/25	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-15.0	50.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/3	Fresno State at Boise State	+3.0	54.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Boise State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Boise State at Oregon State	+2.0	55.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/9	Boise State at New Mexico	-17.0	43.5	W 31 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/17	Boise State vs UT Martin	-24.5	53.5	W 30 - 7	U	N
Fri 9/23	Boise State at UTEP	-16.0	44.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Fri 9/30	Boise State vs San Diego State	-6.0	38.0	W 35 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Boise State vs Fresno State	-9.0	45.0	W 40 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Boise State at Air Force	+2.5	46.5	W 19 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Boise State vs Colorado State	-25.0	42.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Boise State vs BYU	-9.5	54.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Boise State at Nevada	-21.0	47.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Boise State at Wyoming	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/25	Boise State vs Utah State	-17.0	51.5	W 42 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Boise State vs Fresno State	-3.0	54.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 12/17	Boise State vs North Texas	-12.0	63.0	W 35 - 32	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	.26	48%	25.8	46%	2.86	137	49%	327	3.86	.11	38%	18.8	41%	36%	3.54	71.2	1.7	2.2
BSU	.19	43%	29.9	41%	2.75	122	44%	261	3.99	.13	38%	24.1	40%	37%	3.26	49.6	1.3	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	47.6%	3.86	1.7	24	464	137	327	4.1	40%	60%	46%	49%	14%	.26
BSU Defense	12	24.1	22.3	38.5%	3.26	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	37%	17%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	38.5%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	36%	20%	.11
BSU Offense	12	29.9	41.3	43%	3.99	1.3	22	383	122	261	3.2	47%	53%	41%	44%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	31:26	24.3	43%	53%	7.6	71.2	1.7	2.2	6.9	2.3	0	30.1
Boise State	12	29:57	22	44%	38%	5	49.6	1.3	1.9	5.5	2.3	4	29.8

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	40%	46%	33.8	137.2	4.1	17	.06	2.86	64%	9%	0.85
BSU Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.93	67%	11%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.81	68%	13%	0.96
BSU Offense	12	47%	41%	38.3	122.2	3.2	15	.05	2.75	69%	10%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	60%	49%	26.3	39.5	326.7	8.3	12.4	35	10	.39	1.5	28%	35%	.34	5%	1.9
BSU Defense	12	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.22	1.7	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.17	1.8	34%	28%	.29	7%	2.2
BSU Offense	12	53%	44%	21.2	34.2	260.6	7.6	12.3	20	10	.31	1.5	32%	34%	.45	5%	2

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Fresno State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.3 #59
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #64
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #47

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: Boise State: 5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 3.3 Boise State: 5.7

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.35 NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Boise State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #52
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #83
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 29
Fresno State 25

Projected Total Points: 54

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Boise State	7	Fresno State	30	Boise State -17.5	Fresno State	47.5	Under
2023	11/04	Fresno State	37	Boise State	30	Fresno State -2.5	Fresno State	53.5	Over
2022	10/08	Boise State	40	Fresno State	20	Boise State -9	Boise State	45.0	Over
2022	12/03	Boise State	16	Fresno State	28	Boise State -3	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2021	11/06	Fresno State	14	Boise State	40	Fresno State -4	Boise State	61.5	Under
2018	11/09	Boise State	24	Fresno State	17	Fresno State -2.5	Boise State	56.0	Under
2018	12/01	Boise State	16	Fresno State	19	Boise State -2	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2017	12/02	Boise State	17	Fresno State	14	Boise State -9.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2017	11/25	Fresno State	28	Boise State	17	Boise State -6.5	Fresno State	49.0	Under
2014	10/17	Boise State	37	Fresno State	27	Boise State -16	Fresno State	0
2014	12/06	Boise State	28	Fresno State	14	Boise State -17	Fresno State	0
2013	09/20	Fresno State	41	Boise State	40	Fresno State -3	Boise State	0
2012	10/13	Boise State	20	Fresno State	10
2011	10/07	Fresno State	7	Boise State	57
2010	11/19	Boise State	51	Fresno State	0
2009	09/18	Fresno State	34	Boise State	51
2008	11/28	Boise State	61	Fresno State	10
2007	10/26	Fresno State	21	Boise State	34
2006	11/01	Boise State	45	Fresno State	21
2005	11/10	Fresno State	27	Boise State	7
2004	10/23	Boise State	33	Fresno State	16
2003	11/21	Fresno State	17	Boise State	31
2002	10/18	Boise State	67	Fresno State	21
2001	10/19	Fresno State	30	Boise State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	17	4	2 Overs
Fresno State	7	8	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 8	2 - 0
Road Teams	9 - 15	8 - 4	0 - 2	8 - 2

(#) FRES at (#) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	BSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#59	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#44	#21
OffenseOff	#22	#47
DefenseDef	#85	#17
Spec TeamsST	#28	#61
TalentTal	#79	#73
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Fresno State Injury Report

Boise State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#25	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#25

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#80
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#83	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#6	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#70

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Boise State -3.0 (54.5)
Fresno State won at Boise State this year (28-16)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Boise State last year (30-7)
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2023 (37-30)

FRES's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD