Hawai'i at Fresno State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 5th 2022 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -27 (62.0)
Fresno State 55 - Hawai'i: 13 (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (3 - 10) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 35 (15 - 36 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FRES 2nd straight Home Game
FRES is playing their 6th straight game
HAW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -16.5 (SP+ FRES -28)
Projected Score: HAW: 18 - FRES: 28 (46)
FRES Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
HAW Travel: 2515 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bulldogs (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (26 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (34 - 16 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Hawai'i vs Vanderbilt	+9.5	54.5	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/3	Hawai'i vs Western Kentucky	+16.5	67.5	L 17 - 49	U	N
Sat 9/10	Hawai'i at Michigan	+52.5	66.5	L 10 - 56	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Hawai'i vs Duquesne	-11.5
Sat 9/24	Hawai'i at New Mexico State	+4.5	53.0	L 26 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Hawai'i at San Diego State	+23.5	48.5	L 14 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/15	Hawai'i vs Nevada	+6.5	51.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Hawai'i at Colorado State	+6.0	46.0	L 13 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Hawai'i vs Wyoming	+11.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Hawai'i at Fresno State	+27.0	62.0	L 13 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/12	Hawai'i vs Utah State	+10.0	55.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+11.0	56.5	W 31 - 25	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Hawai'i at San José State	+15.5	58.5	L 14 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Fresno State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-42.5	63.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-1.0	59.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at USC	+11.0	71.0	L 17 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UConn	-23.5	51.0	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Boise State	+9.0	45.0	L 20 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/15	Fresno State vs San José State	+7.0	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at New Mexico	-9.5	40.0	W 41 - 9	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-10.0	43.5	W 32 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/5	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-27.0	62.0	W 55 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/11	Fresno State at UNLV	-9.0	61.5	W 37 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/19	Fresno State at Nevada	-22.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/25	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-15.0	50.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/3	Fresno State at Boise State	+3.0	54.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	.08	40%	19.8	49%	3.4	137	34%	206	3.03	.28	46%	34.7	48%	45%	4.24	50.2	1.5	0.9
FRES	.24	47%	30.6	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	19.4	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#82 (.17)	44% (52)		46% (45)	3.29 (26)	99	44% (50)	268	3.81 (81)	#81 (.19)	42% (71)		45% (85)	40% (58)	4.15 (103)	70.3	1.6	0.9
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	13	19.8	15	39.8%	3.03	1.5	19	343	137	206	4.4	43%	56%	49%	34%	16%	.08
FRES Defense	14	19.4	15.5	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	13	34.7	36	46%	4.24	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	45%	12%	.28
FRES Offense	14	30.6	33.5	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	13	28:16	18.8	35%	53%	5.6	50.2	1.5	0.9	4.2	1.4	1	28.1
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	13	43%	49%	31.2	137.2	4.4	16	.14	3.4	78%	9%	0.91
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	13	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.51	73%	7%	0.96
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	13	56%	34%	20.1	37.7	205.5	5.5	10.2	13	12	.06	1.5	32%	22%	.04	7%	2.1
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	13	46%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.4	1.6	30%	39%	.44	5%	1.7
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: NR
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: NR
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Hawai'i's 2022 Expected Record: -
Hawai'i's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #129
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.0 #118
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #124

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: Fresno State: 4.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -24.4 Fresno State: 3.3

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 4.15 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.3 #59
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #64
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #47

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 36

Hawai'i's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
Hawai'i 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 22
Hawai'i 18

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 34
Hawai'i 18

Total Points: 52

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 30.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.5

Fresno State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	23	Fresno State -2.5	Hawai'i	47.5	Under
2024	11/02	Fresno State	20	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State -12	Hawai'i	45.5	Under
2022	11/05	Fresno State	55	Hawai'i	13	Fresno State -27	Fresno State	62.0	Over
2021	10/02	Hawai'i	27	Fresno State	24	Fresno State -10.5	Hawai'i	64.5	Under
2020	10/24	Fresno State	19	Hawai'i	34	Fresno State -2.5	Hawai'i	64.5	Under
2019	11/02	Hawai'i	38	Fresno State	41	Hawai'i -2	Fresno State	69.5	Over
2018	10/27	Fresno State	50	Hawai'i	20	Fresno State -24.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2017	11/11	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	31	Fresno State -10	NA	53.0	Under
2016	11/19	Fresno State	13	Hawai'i	14	Hawai'i -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Under
2015	11/14	Hawai'i	14	Fresno State	42	Hawai'i -4	Fresno State	53.0	Over
2014	11/29	Fresno State	28	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State -12	Hawai'i	0
2013	09/29	Hawai'i	37	Fresno State	42	Fresno State -18.5	Hawai'i	0
2012	11/03	Fresno State	45	Hawai'i	10
2011	11/19	Hawai'i	21	Fresno State	24
2010	10/09	Fresno State	27	Hawai'i	49
2009	10/10	Hawai'i	17	Fresno State	42
2008	10/04	Fresno State	29	Hawai'i	32
2007	11/10	Hawai'i	37	Fresno State	30
2006	10/14	Fresno State	37	Hawai'i	68
2005	10/29	Hawai'i	13	Fresno State	27
2004	11/12	Fresno State	70	Hawai'i	14
2003	10/12	Hawai'i	55	Fresno State	28
2002	10/25	Fresno State	21	Hawai'i	31
2001	10/26	Hawai'i	38	Fresno State	34
2000	11/03	Fresno State	45	Hawai'i	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	14	5	4 Overs
Hawai'i	11	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 15	6 - 5	2 - 5	4 - 0
Road Teams	15 - 10	5 - 6	0 - 4	5 - 2

(#) HAW at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#129	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#126	#44
OffenseOff	#105	#22
DefenseDef	#128	#85
Spec TeamsST	#124	#28
TalentTal	#104	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Hawai'i Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense


CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#118	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Hawai'i Run Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#22	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#70

Hawai'i Pass Game


CategoryCat	HAW Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#124
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	#25	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#135

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56°

Rematch from Week 10
Fresno State -27.0 (62.0)
Fresno State won vs Hawai'i this year (55-13)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Fresno State last year (21-20)
Fresno State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (55-13)

HAW's OC Ian Shoemaker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Jacob Yoro (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD