San Diego State at Fresno State - 2022 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 29th 2022 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -10 (43.5)
Fresno State 32 - San Diego State: 28 (Mountain West)

Aztecs (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (16 - 6)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ FRES -8)
Projected Score: SDSU: 20 - FRES: 22 (42)
FRES Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
SDSU Travel: 316 miles

Bulldogs (10 - 4) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (26 - 14)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	San Diego State vs Arizona	-6.0	46.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/10	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-33.5	50.5	W 38 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/17	San Diego State at Utah	+21.5	48.0	L 7 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/24	San Diego State vs Toledo	+2.5	44.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Fri 9/30	San Diego State at Boise State	+6.0	38.0	L 13 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/8	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-23.5	48.5	W 16 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	San Diego State at Nevada	-7.5	36.0	W 23 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/29	San Diego State at Fresno State	+10.0	43.5	L 28 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/5	San Diego State vs UNLV	-5.0	47.0	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/12	San Diego State vs San José State	+2.5	41.0	W 43 - 27	O	Y
Fri 11/18	San Diego State at New Mexico	-15.0	36.0	W 34 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/26	San Diego State vs Air Force	+2.0	43.5	L 3 - 13	U	N
Sat 12/24	San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee	-7.0	47.0	L 23 - 25	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Fresno State vs Cal Poly	-42.5	63.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/10	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-1.0	59.0	L 32 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/17	Fresno State at USC	+11.0	71.0	L 17 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/1	Fresno State at UConn	-23.5	51.0	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/8	Fresno State at Boise State	+9.0	45.0	L 20 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/15	Fresno State vs San José State	+7.0	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Fresno State at New Mexico	-9.5	40.0	W 41 - 9	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-10.0	43.5	W 32 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/5	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-27.0	62.0	W 55 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/11	Fresno State at UNLV	-9.0	61.5	W 37 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/19	Fresno State at Nevada	-22.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/25	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-15.0	50.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/3	Fresno State at Boise State	+3.0	54.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	.15	40%	26.4	40%	3	175	39%	168	3.57	.07	36%	15.4	33%	38%	3.46	67.9	1	1.9
FRES	.26	48%	25.8	46%	2.86	137	49%	327	3.86	.11	38%	18.8	41%	36%	3.54	71.2	1.7	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	14	26.4	18.2	39.7%	3.57	1	19	343	175	168	4.3	56%	43%	40%	39%	15%	.15
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	38.5%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	36%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	14	15.4	18.3	35.8%	3.46	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	39%	61%	33%	38%	20%	.07
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	47.6%	3.86	1.7	24	464	137	327	4.1	40%	60%	46%	49%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	14	32:04	18.6	32%	63%	7.4	67.9	1	1.9	6.8	2.9	5	30.5
Fresno State	13	31:26	24.3	43%	53%	7.6	71.2	1.7	2.2	6.9	2.3	0	30.1

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	14	56%	40%	40.8	174.9	4.3	26	.17	3	76%	10%	1.14
FRES Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.81	68%	13%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	14	39%	33%	-	-	-	-	-.06	2.61	65%	12%	0.84
FRES Offense	13	40%	46%	33.8	137.2	4.1	17	.06	2.86	64%	9%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	14	43%	39%	14.9	25.8	167.9	6.5	11.3	16	5	.17	1.4	33%	28%	.24	5%	1.9
FRES Defense	13	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.17	1.8	34%	28%	.29	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	14	61%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.18	1.5	36%	26%	.19	8%	1.9
FRES Offense	13	60%	49%	26.3	39.5	326.7	8.3	12.4	35	10	.39	1.5	28%	35%	.34	5%	1.9

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: NR
San Diego State's Offense Rating: NR
San Diego State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
San Diego State's 2022 Expected Record: -
San Diego State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4 #85
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #124
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: Fresno State: 4.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -4.4 Fresno State: 3.3

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 4.15 NR
Fresno State's Offense Rating: NR
Fresno State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Fresno State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Fresno State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.3 #59
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #64
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #47

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 22
San Diego State 20

Projected Total Points: 42

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Fresno State	0	San Diego State	23	San Diego State -3	San Diego State	46.5	Under
2023	11/25	San Diego State	33	Fresno State	18	Fresno State -5.5	San Diego State	47.0	Over
2022	10/29	Fresno State	32	San Diego State	28	Fresno State -10	San Diego State	43.5	Over
2021	10/30	San Diego State	20	Fresno State	30	Fresno State -2	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2019	11/15	San Diego State	17	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -1	San Diego State	43.0	Under
2018	11/17	Fresno State	23	San Diego State	14	Fresno State -13	San Diego State	42.5	Under
2017	10/21	San Diego State	3	Fresno State	27	San Diego State -6.5	Fresno State	49.5	Under
2016	10/14	Fresno State	3	San Diego State	17	San Diego State -17.5	Fresno State	51.0	Under
2015	10/03	San Diego State	21	Fresno State	7	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	51.5	Under
2014	10/03	Fresno State	24	San Diego State	13	San Diego State -2	Fresno State	0
2013	10/26	San Diego State	28	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -9.5	San Diego State	0
2012	09/29	Fresno State	52	San Diego State	40
2011	12/03	San Diego State	35	Fresno State	28
2002	08/29	Fresno State	16	San Diego State	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	8	4	3 Overs
San Diego State	6	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 3	4 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	5 - 6	2 - 4	3 - 2

(#) SDSU at (#) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#85	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#44
OffenseOff	#121	#22
DefenseDef	#35	#85
Spec TeamsST	#45	#28
TalentTal	#115	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

San Diego State Injury Report

Fresno State Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#124	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#95	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#123	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#70

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Fresno State on Offense


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#22	#35
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Fresno State Run Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#25	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#116

Fresno State Pass Game


CategoryCat	FRES Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#92	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Fresno State -10.0 (43.5)
Fresno State won vs San Diego State this year (32-28)

Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Fresno State last year (23-0)
San Diego State beat Fresno State in 2023 (33-18)

SDSU's OC Jeff Hecklinski (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

FRES's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD