Boise State at Nevada - 2022 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 12th 2022 (10:30 PM EST)
Boise State -21 (47.0)
Boise State 41 - Nevada: 3 (Mountain West)

Broncos (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Andy Avalos (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV coming off BYE
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -11.5 (SP+ BSU -28)
Projected Score: BSU: 26 - NEV: 21 (47)
BSU Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
BSU Travel: 337 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BSU Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boise State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Boise State at Oregon State	+2.0	55.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Fri 9/9	Boise State at New Mexico	-17.0	43.5	W 31 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/17	Boise State vs UT Martin	-24.5	53.5	W 30 - 7	U	N
Fri 9/23	Boise State at UTEP	-16.0	44.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Fri 9/30	Boise State vs San Diego State	-6.0	38.0	W 35 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Boise State vs Fresno State	-9.0	45.0	W 40 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Boise State at Air Force	+2.5	46.5	W 19 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Boise State vs Colorado State	-25.0	42.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Boise State vs BYU	-9.5	54.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/12	Boise State at Nevada	-21.0	47.0	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Boise State at Wyoming	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/25	Boise State vs Utah State	-17.0	51.5	W 42 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/3	Boise State vs Fresno State	-3.0	54.5	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 12/17	Boise State vs North Texas	-12.0	63.0	W 35 - 32	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Nevada's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Nevada at New Mexico State	-7.0	48.0	W 23 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/3	Nevada vs Texas State	+2.0	51.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Nevada vs Incarnate Word	-4.0	61.5	L 41 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/17	Nevada at Iowa	+24.0	39.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Fri 9/23	Nevada at Air Force	+24.0	47.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/7	Nevada vs Colorado State	-3.5	44.0	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/15	Nevada at Hawai'i	-6.5	51.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/22	Nevada vs San Diego State	+7.5	36.0	L 7 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/29	Nevada at San José State	+24.5	44.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Nevada vs Boise State	+21.0	47.0	L 3 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/19	Nevada vs Fresno State	+22.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/26	Nevada at UNLV	+12.5	49.0	L 22 - 27	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU	.19	43%	29.9	41%	2.75	122	44%	261	3.99	.13	38%	24.1	40%	37%	3.26	49.6	1.3	1.9
NEV	.27	43%	17.6	40%	2.77	77	45%	347	4.01	.21	46%	27.5	52%	41%	3.75	55.1	0.8	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Offense	12	29.9	19.8	43%	3.99	1.3	22	383	122	261	3.2	47%	53%	41%	44%	15%	.19
NEV Defense	13	27.5	25.2	46.2%	3.75	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	52%	41%	18%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BSU Defense	12	24.1	23.8	38.5%	3.26	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	37%	17%	.13
NEV Offense	13	17.6	19.7	42.9%	4.01	0.8	22	424	77	347	3	32%	67%	40%	45%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boise State	12	29:57	22	44%	38%	5	49.6	1.3	1.9	5.5	2.3	4	29.8
Nevada	13	28:52	22.2	41%	57%	6.5	55.1	0.8	2.7	6.1	3.2	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Offense	12	47%	41%	38.3	122.2	3.2	15	.05	2.75	69%	10%	0.84
NEV Defense	13	50%	52%	-	-	-	-	.27	3.56	82%	11%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BSU Defense	12	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.93	67%	11%	0.93
NEV Offense	13	32%	40%	25.9	77.4	3	13	.07	2.77	70%	11%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Offense	12	53%	44%	21.2	34.2	260.6	7.6	12.3	20	10	.31	1.5	32%	34%	.45	5%	2
NEV Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.5	28%	29%	.22	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BSU Defense	12	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.22	1.7	34%	26%	.22	6%	2.2
NEV Offense	13	67%	45%	30.4	44	347	7.9	11.4	38	9	.39	1.6	32%	34%	.44	5%	2

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Boise State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #52
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #83
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: Nevada: -8.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 5.7 Nevada: -22.4

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -8.7 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2022 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #127
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.9 #121
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #114

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 26
Nevada 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2022 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/24	Nevada	3	Boise State	24	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	51.5	Under
2024	11/09	Boise State	28	Nevada	21	Boise State -23.5	Nevada	60.5	Under
2022	11/12	Nevada	3	Boise State	41	Boise State -21	Boise State	47.0	Under
2021	10/02	Boise State	31	Nevada	41	Boise State -3.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2018	10/13	Nevada	27	Boise State	31	Boise State -15	Nevada	59.5	Under
2017	11/04	Boise State	41	Nevada	14	Boise State -20.5	Boise State	63.0	Under
2014	10/04	Nevada	46	Boise State	51	Boise State -1.5	Boise State	0
2013	10/19	Boise State	34	Nevada	17	Boise State -21.5	Nevada	0
2012	12/01	Nevada	21	Boise State	27
2011	10/01	Boise State	30	Nevada	10
2010	11/26	Nevada	34	Boise State	31
2009	11/27	Boise State	44	Nevada	33
2008	11/22	Nevada	34	Boise State	41
2007	10/14	Boise State	69	Nevada	67
2006	11/25	Nevada	7	Boise State	38
2005	10/29	Boise State	49	Nevada	14
2004	11/27	Nevada	21	Boise State	58
2003	11/29	Boise State	56	Nevada	3
2001	10/27	Boise State	49	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	2	4	1 Overs
Boise State	17	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 10	6 - 2	3 - 1	3 - 1

(#) BSU at (#) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BSU	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#52	#127
Perf GradeGrade	#21	#130
OffenseOff	#47	#127
DefenseDef	#17	#110
Spec TeamsST	#61	#84
TalentTal	#73	#106
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Boise State Injury Report

Nevada Injury Report

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#110
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#83	#114
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#6	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#105

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#121	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#105	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#25

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	#106	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#106	#80
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Poor G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Boise State 21.0 (47.0)
Boise State won at Nevada this year (41-3)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Nevada last year (24-3)
Boise State beat Nevada in 2024 (28-21)

BSU's OC Tim Plough (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Spencer Danielson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD